The geopolitical hits keep coming, but where do things flow from here? That was the million-barrel question that energy markets began to reckon with on Monday.

As you may have detected by the relentless push notifications on your lock screen this weekend, the United States captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Saturday and brought him stateside to face drug-trafficking charges. President Trump said US energy companies will be invited to revitalize the country’s struggling energy industry, rich in reserves but hampered by ailing infrastructure. With details scant, the impact may be muted for some time.

The Pump Remains the Same

Venezuela’s 303 billion barrels of oil reserves are estimated to make up about a fifth of the world’s total, but the country accounts for less than 1% of global production. Years of sanctions, corruption, mismanagement and fraying infrastructure are to thank. That’s also why no one was in a rush to revise their annual energy forecasts on Monday.

Analysts at GasBuddy wrote that “even under the most optimistic outcomes,” any significant impacts on oil supply or prices due to Venezuela are years away. They still expect US fuel prices to average $2.97 a gallon in 2026 — the first year below $3 since 2020 — adding to relief from last year when prices fell 20%. Unchanged were Goldman Sachs’ 2026 oil price forecasts of $56 a barrel for Brent, the benchmark for European crude, and $52 for West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark. The bank expects Venezuela’s production to remain flat at 900,000 barrels per day in 2026 (if production roughly doubled, it could lead to a $4-per-barrel downside by 2030). Expected to help markets remain relatively stable is an ongoing supply glut: The International Energy Agency projects a surplus of 3.8 million barrels a day in global oil markets this year. That means that, with more fuel than there is demand, energy markets have the capacity to absorb shocks and uncertainty.

It’ll be years before a revived Venezuelan oil economy changes the market’s dynamics, but energy companies did benefit from animal spirits on Monday:

• Chevron, the only US oil major currently operating in Venezuela, rose more than 5% on Monday. In addition, the big winners were US Gulf Coast refiners — Marathon Petroleum (up 5.9%), Phillips 66 (+7.2%), PBF Energy (+3.4%) and Valero Energy (+9.2%) — which are especially suited to processing the heavy, sulfur-rich crude that Venezuela produces.
• “Geopolitical crises typically have only a fleeting impact on financial markets, and we don’t expect this to be an exception,” wrote UBS analysts, noting the muted overall impact. “During the last 11 major geopolitical events, the S&P 500 was on average just 0.3% lower one week after the event and 7.7% higher 12 months later.”

A Heavy Price to Pay: Once the super dense, heavy crude oil in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt, which is more challenging and costly to extract and refine than light crude oil, does make its way to western markets, one country could pay a heavy price. The Canadian oil sands, which also produce heavy crude, compete with Venezuelan exports because of their similar high sulfur makeup and refining needs. On Monday, shares in Canada’s top oil sands producers were down on the Toronto Stock Exchange: Cenovus fell 4.8%, Canadian Natural 6% and Suncor 1.6%.

Don’t worry: You weren’t the only one limping out of 2025.

US factory activity contracted for the 10th straight month in December, according to the latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey released Monday, reaching a 14-month low and bucking most economists’ expectations. Why? Most experts are simply pointing to the two most significant macroeconomic forces that shaped last year.

Riffing on Tariffs

When the White House embarked on its tariff-fueled trade war early last year, it pitched the nation that a new protectionist stance could reverse a long decline in American manufacturing. The jury is still out on the project’s efficacy. The US trade deficit shrank to a five-year low in September as imports shrank and exports increased, according to the most recent available Commerce Department data released last month.

On the other hand, respondents in the ISM survey cited tariffs and high input prices as major concerns (one survey respondent said tariffs resulted in a 17% revenue hit). Just two of the 17 surveyed industries experienced growth in December, the fewest since late 2023, while overall headcount declined for the 11th consecutive month amid a continued decline in new orders.

Meanwhile, as the sector navigated new trade war headwinds, it was forced to contend for capital and resources with the tech industry’s massive artificial intelligence data center buildout:

• According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, US manufacturing construction spending — an indicator of investment in new and expanded factories — sank 4.5% from January through August 2025, the most recent data available. That’s a stark contrast to the monumental boom in data center construction last year.
• The data center boom “sucks resources from other projects. There’s absolutely no doubt about it,” Andrew Anagnost, the CEO of engineering and construction software firm Autodesk Inc., recently told Bloomberg.

Any Indication: Coupled with the downbeat ISM report came the latest reading from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge, which estimated US fourth-quarter GDP was 2.7%, down from a previous prediction of 3%. Both readings probably have manufacturers hoping for a rate cut when the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee reconvenes late this month, though potentially the most important development for the industry may come early this year, when the Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of the White House’s tariff regime. “Real consumer spending is down, and tariffs are ultimately to blame. I hope for some return to free trade, which is what consumers have ‘voted for’ with their spending,” one survey respondent told the ISM.

Lyte left stealth mode Monday to share its robotic sensory and perception tech with the crowds at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES).

The startup, which has raised roughly $107 million, was founded by three former Apple employees who helped create FaceID. The trio used their face-capturing expertise to create an AI system that acts as the “visual brain” for autonomous robots. Its LyteVision product uses three types of sensors to calculate distance and velocity, allowing robots to perform tasks like household chores without dropping the dishes.

The system is meant to be a plug-and-play solution for robotic companies, cutting time from the otherwise arduous process of sourcing and integrating sensors into bots ranging from humanoids to robotaxis.

Robots Hit the Strip

LyteVision won a CES Innovation award in robotics for making robots smarter with its sensory system. The Las Vegas convention expects 144,000 attendees to visit its thousands of tech-showcasing booths this week, and is teeming with new bots that could potentially tap a product like LyteVision:

• LG’s CLOid will demo its laundry-folding skills at CES this week. The AI-powered humanoid bot can do laundry, dishes and other household tasks — but only if objects remain above knee level. Swithbot’s Onero H1, also at CES, does housework, too, but one major difference between the two is that LG’s bot has legs. Other bots at CES were less humanoid and made for more than chores: Tomboy’s robotic Labrador puppy (meet Jenny) provides seniors and others with the comfort of a pup without the potty accidents.
• Qualcomm, meanwhile, unveiled tech that could rival LyteVision. The chip-maker’s Dragonwing IQ10 system is meant to serve as a robot’s brain, handling sensory perception and interaction. Qualcomm also teamed up with robotics company Vinmotion to create its Motion 2 humanoid robot, which shows off how Qualcomm’s system works in practice.

Big Brain Move: AI-powered bots’ big presence at CES reflects the enthusiasm of a market projected to hit $125 billion by 2030. But McKinsey found that 6 in 10 companies don’t have the infrastructure (such as sensors) to make automation a reality. Companies that connect the dots by creating robots’ internal systems could tap a corner of the growing market, while the consumer bots they’re used by compete with each other to fold socks.