The United States attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend, and the Persian Gulf nation retaliated Monday by firing missiles at a US airbase in Qatar. At first glance, the events seemed like a recipe for oil prices to surge and stock markets to falter.

Instead, a day of diplomatic jockeying led to relative calm for investors. Defense officials signaled the prevailing mood was one of compromise and, in the evening, President Donald Trump announced Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. While that ceasefire was tested overnight, investors around the world are in agreement that de-escalation remains the most likely outcome.

Jockeying of the Diplomatic and Military Varieties

If Trump’s sudden ceasefire announcement was unexpected, the desire to de-escalate was not. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized on Sunday that the US strikes on Iran were “not open-ended” and “not about regime change.”

When Iran responded to the US action a day later, its diplomats even reached out to US officials through diplomatic channels to relay a courtesy heads-up before firing at an American airbase, Reuters reported. They coordinated with Qatari officials, too, The New York Times reported, in order to minimize casualties. Qatar was able to shoot down the missiles with its air defenses, and there were no injuries or deaths. Markets read these actions as a signal that Tehran likewise preferred not to escalate. President Trump even publicly thanked Iran for the advance notice. Markets in the world’s two largest economies, which have a significant interest in the stability of the oil-producing Middle East, have so far taken it in stride:

• The West Texas Intermediate oil benchmark fell over 8% to $67.48 a barrel on Monday, its biggest drop in a day since early April and the first time it has traded below $70 since June 12, the day before Israel’s first strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones all rose just under 1% in a collective sigh of relief — as of early Tuesday morning, futures tied to the Dow were up 0.8%, futures attached to the S&P 500 were up 0.9% and futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq had risen 1.2%.
• With heightened escalation that would imperil both oil markets and investor confidence seemingly averted, investors in China — which buys roughly 90% of all Iranian crude oil, according to data firm Kpler — registered their relief Tuesday. The mainland Shanghai Stock Exchange rose 1.1% on the day and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rallied 2%.

Give It to Them Strait: Iranian state media reported that the country’s parliament voted over the weekend in favor of a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery in global oil trade that carries 20% of the world’s daily supply, according to the US Energy Information Administration. However, Iran’s national security council would make the final call on any such decision, and officials have bluffed about closing the strait before. The combined reactions from the US, China and oil market suggest investors agree it’s unlikely.

In a fitting twist for a company called Hims & Hers, the latest drama in the weight-loss drug world has become a classic “he said, she said” tale of alleged corporate misdeeds.

On one side is Novo Nordisk, which on Monday announced it was backing out of its partnership to sell Wegovy at a discounted price to Hims & Hers, accusing the company of selling too many knockoff versions of the drug in violation of their agreement. On the other side, Hims & Hers, which says it was operating within the terms of the deal and called the claims “misleading.”

Compound Interest

Novo and Hims’ April team-up turned the two firms from competitors into collaborators at just the right moment. Two months prior, the US Food and Drug Administration removed the key ingredient of Wegovy, semaglutide, from its shortage list. That effectively put an end to Hims’ newfound (and lucrative) business of selling knockoff compounded versions of the drug to its telehealth customers. Sales of the copycats took a bite out of Novo’s business while the company was already losing market share to archrival Eli Lilly. Which is why the partnership made sense at first: Novo wanted an easier way to sell its weight-loss drugs, and Hims wanted to keep selling weight-loss drugs.

But the relationship came with strings attached. Namely, according to Novo, Hims was supposed to pare back its copycat drugs business — though the exact terms may have been a little loose:

• According to FDA rules, Hims technically can still sell its knockoff weight loss drugs to patients who require “personalized dosages,” and in April, the telehealth firm said it would continue to do so.
• Novo, however, said on Monday that the telehealth firm is continuing “mass sales” of the compounded version in violation of both their partnership agreement and possibly the law. Novo also accused Hims of “disseminating deceptive marketing that put patient safety at risk.”

For its part, Hims said in a statement Monday that Novo pressured the company to “steer patients to Wegovy regardless of whether it was clinically best for patients” and that the company refuses “to be strong-armed” and will continue to offer “a range of treatments, including Wegovy.”

Without a Captain: The falling out is the latest challenge for Novo. In the US, weekly prescription fill-ups for Wegovy have recently trailed Eli Lilly’s rival treatment, Zepbound, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal. Eli Lilly’s diabetes treatment Mounjaro, meanwhile, is closing the gap on Novo’s Ozempic. Worse, Lilly’s R&D pipeline is looking far more promising after it reported successful clinical trials for a pill version of its weight-loss drug, which many expect to juice the so-far injectables-only industry. Novo’s pipeline, meanwhile, took a hit after it reported disappointing trial results for its next-gen weight-loss drug CagriSema in December. The Danish company’s woes ultimately led to the ouster of CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen in May. He hasn’t yet been replaced.

Welcome to the cryptoverse, Main Street. Fintech company Fiserv said yesterday it’s launching a stablecoin platform that will connect thousands of banks and merchants later this year.

Fiserv is building the platform, which’ll live on the Solana blockchain, with help from blockchain infrastructure company Paxos and stablecoin platform Circle. Fiserv is also launching its own stablecoin to use on the platform, FIUSD, but plans to make the platform compatible with other tokens, too, like PayPal’s PayUSD.

Crypto for Newbies

Stablecoins are the California rolls of the crypto world. They’re a starting point to get cautious financial institutions to try a little crypto. The tokens are seen as safer than other digital assets (ahem, fartcoin) because their value is tied 1:1 with another asset, often the US dollar.

Companies are racing to get into stablecoins as the Genius Act makes its way toward POTUS Trump’s desk. The bill, which outlines a regulatory framework for stablecoins, was passed by the Senate in an overwhelming 68-30 vote last week. It heads to the House next and, if approved there, to Trump for a final signature. Trump posted on social media last week that he wants it on his desk “ASAP – NO DELAYS.” He said the bill will “make America the UNDISPUTED Leader in Digital Assets.”

As businesses eye the new legislation, they’re exploring how they can ride the hype:

• Some of the largest US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, are considering teaming up to launch a joint stablecoin, according to The Wall Street Journal. For now, JPMorgan said it’s launching a stablecoin-like “deposit token” called JPMD on Coinbase’s blockchain.
• Walmart, Amazon and Expedia are reportedly exploring the launch of their own stablecoins, which could enable shoppers to bypass traditional payment platforms and pay through the blockchain.

If You Can’t Beat ’Em: Stablecoins pose an existential threat to traditional finance because they let consumers bypass banks, instead processing transactions on the blockchain. So TradFi (crypto-speak for Traditional Finance) companies are getting ahead of the trend with their own platforms and stablecoins, ensuring they’ll still be a part of people’s purchases, even if they move to the blockchain. Proponents also say stablecoins make transactions faster and cheaper, but skeptics remain concerned about security and possible regulatory complications.