Remember tariffs? Those things that have roiled markets, alarmed economists, and hogged news headlines for most of the past three months? Oh, you haven’t forgotten.

Well, just in case, America’s largest retailer is here to remind you: Despite a 90-day trade war truce with China and a pause on global reciprocal tariffs set to end in July, Walmart said Thursday that it plans to hike prices this month.

Going Bananas

The US agreed to slash duties on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% earlier this week as the two nations try to negotiate a longer-lasting deal. But when Walmart held its latest earnings call Thursday, Chief Financial Officer John Rainey hastened to note that a 30% tariff during the negotiating window is still a 30% tariff.

In a client note earlier this week, Bank of America’s Robert Ohmes said Walmart is “well positioned to manage tariffs” because of its sophisticated supply chain network and because imports from China make up only about 15% of its US sales, considerably less than many competitors. About 60% of its US sales are groceries, most of which are domestically sourced. Notably, the retail giant did not pause or revise its annual guidance, as many other companies have because of the economic uncertainty.

In addition to the 30% tariffs on China, the Trump administration has imposed a 10% universal tariff on most imports entering the US. Rainey said on Thursday’s earnings call that, even with Walmart’s vast resources, there are “certain items, certain categories of merchandise that we’re dependent upon to import from other countries. Prices of those things are likely going to go up, and that’s not good for consumers.” Additionally, executives provided some specific examples of how the levies, as well as changes in Americans’ shopping habits, are playing out at the retail giant’s stores:

• CEO Doug McMillan said “tariffs on countries like Costa Rica, Peru, and Colombia are pressuring imported items like bananas, avocados, coffee, and roses.” Banana prices, he added, have already been driven up to 54 cents a pound from 50 cents, due to tariffs.
• US comparable sales climbed 4.5% in the three months through May 2, besting Wall Street’s expectations, but a quarterly revenue jump of 2.5% to $165.6 billion missed. Walmart noted Thursday that it has continued to benefit from high-income households turning to the low-price retailer for groceries — it was buoyed by the trend during previous periods of uncertainty like the pandemic and its inflationary fallout.

The Chair’s View: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled Thursday that interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer as inflation trends grow more volatile. “We may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks,” he told the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in DC. It might also mean more high-income customers for Walmart.

Tallow facials, grilling season, and Americans’ obsession with red meat are costing an increasingly pretty penny.

US beef prices have been surging to record highs as a combination of market factors has steadily thinned beef cattle herds to lows unseen since the 1960s. The average price of a pound of ground beef rose to $5.80 per pound in cities in April, and uncooked beef steaks hit $11.12, according to data from the Labor Department.

Don’t Have a Cow

Before meat gets to a plate, farmers have to make a series of cost-benefit decisions that determine what percentage of their herds should be taken to market. When rising feed costs eat too far into profit margins, they’re compelled to thin their herds, rather than breed them.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s annual cattle report, published at the end of January, showed that herds continued to contract last year. The inventory of beef cow herds was about 28 million head, down 0.5% — a smaller contraction than the year prior but still the lowest level since 1961. Total cattle herd figures have also hit multi-decade lows as consumer demand outstripped supply, and cattle not usually used for beef were sent to slaughter.

Part of the thinning is normal — the industry is steered by cattle cycles that tend to run eight to 12 years, a pattern that follows cattle production and cattle producers’ responses to market dynamics. The current cycle, which began in 2014, hit a contraction phase in 2020 that has stretched into this year in part due to drought. What’s unusual about this cycle is that high prices haven’t yet led to growth in cattle herds.

Food retailers and distributors have taken note of how that has translated to eye-popping beef prices:

• During Kroger’s March earnings call, interim Chief Financial Officer Todd Foley said that while eggs were grabbing the headlines, beef and other meat categories were “extreme or outlier inflation commodities.”
• “In beef, we’re navigating a challenging environment with discipline,” Donnie King, chief of Tyson Foods, said during his company’s earnings call last week. “While limited cattle availability is pressuring spreads, consumer demand has remained resilient.”

The numbers aren’t looking good in the near term, per industry publication Farm Talk. The cow culling rate in 2024 dropped to 10%, so another sharp decline this year could mean a slight herd growth. That said, 2025 slaughter rates would have to decline 12% year-over-year to meet the last three herd expansion averages of under 9%.

Herd Inflection: Heifer retention this year will determine herd dynamics for the next couple of years, given that cattle reach market weight at 18 to 22 months. While inventories are still looking for a bottom, if this cycle follows historical trends, herds should expand and beef prices normalize in the next couple of years.

With a roster of more than 300 social media stars nobody over 35 has ever heard of, influencer agency Whalar Group is a $400 million company.

That’s according to a new slew of investors, including Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff and ecommerce giant Shopify, who joined Whalar’s latest fundraising round, announced Thursday, with said valuation. President Jo Cronk welcomed the two, as well as Fast & Furious franchise producer Neal Moritz, on the suddenly strangely cool social media network LinkedIn.

Under the Influencers

The idea of social media creators as pitch persons for products may once have been considered niche, but the creator economy is on track to be a $480 billion industry by 2027, according to Goldman Sachs. Brand deals make up about 70% of the revenue in the sector, a survey by the bank found. That’s where Whalar has excelled.

In its own carefully crafted marketing language, the company says its mission is to “liberate brands from meaningless marketing” (translation: get them to advertise with our clients) by creating “culturally relevant movements” (translation: paid advertising that goes viral across social networks with a well-crafted push from creators). None of which is to be dismissive:

• The company told Bloomberg News that it has paid out $300 million to its growing roster of TikTok, Instagram and YouTube influencers since it was founded in 2016. It also acquired UK creator talent agency Sixteenth last year.
• Whalar’s success is due partly to its use of campaigns that leverage the advantage of multiple creators under a single organizational umbrella: One got dozens of TikTok influencers in 17 markets to simultaneously promote a jingle written for Ikea, leading to its appearance in posts by thousands of other users. Another relied on British influencers to provide support for an advertising campaign by mocktail company J20 poking fun at “posh” upper-class mannerisms.

Skin Deep: Actually, Whalar has worked with talent that will be familiar to the over-35s, too: It previously collaborated with the OG influencer herself, Martha Stewart, on a TikTok campaign with skincare and makeup brand Clé de Peau Beauté in 2022.