We love all of our earnings seasons, but this one has been special.

Now, the quarterly reporting calendar has advanced to the slots reserved for the Magnificent Seven, with Tesla sharing its performance on Wednesday, while its six peers are scheduled to follow next week. The powerful cohort continues to define the broader market, which has officially been placed on the “bubble watchlist” as the current bull run gallops into its fourth year. Will it continue to go wherever the Mag 7 leads it?

Touching the Sun

The companies in the elite group — Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Nvidia — account for just over one-third of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF that tracks them, meanwhile, has risen roughly 35% in the past year, while the broader S&P 500 has increased by about 15%. The group is expected to continue to trounce its broader market peers in this quarter’s earnings season. According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, the Mag 7 is likely to post collective earnings growth of 15% in the third quarter, more than double the 6.7% growth of “The Other 493.”

Still, the chasm is narrower than in recent quarters, and analysts suspect that by this time next year, the bottom 493 companies will be largely driving market gains. After all, how much bigger can a $4 trillion company get? Already, some big bellwether names within the lowly “Other 493” are reporting tailwinds:

• On the consumer side, Coca-Cola beat Wall Street’s expectations earlier this week, while General Motors raised its operating forecast for the rest of the year on Tuesday, citing robust demand. That comes after major banks reported bumper profits last week, and as major industrial firms like 3M and GE Aerospace post strong earnings as well.
• So far, 76% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings-per-share projections, BofA Global Research analysts told MarketWatch on Tuesday, besting a 68% historical average. The strong performances may continue through next year: FactSet data projects that the Bottom 493 will reach similar earnings growth by the third quarter of 2026, while the Mag 7 remains level.

Open Road: Tesla revved its engine after the bell on Wednesday with an unsurprising revenue beat, as US consumers rushed to buy electric vehicles before the September 30 expiration of the $7,500 federal government EV tax credit. However, the company’s profit per share of just 50 cents fell below consensus expectations of 55 cents, dragging Tesla shares down 2% in after-hours trading. Of the Mag 7, only Nvidia, the largest company in the world and the No. 1 beneficiary of Big Tech’s historic AI spending, is expected to be a top five contributor to S&P 500 earnings growth in the third quarter, according to FactSet research. The Magnificent One doesn’t have the same ring.

The National Hockey League has a breakaway with prediction markets.

In a first for a US sports league, Kalshi and Polymarket can now use the NHL’s trademarks, including the terms “NHL” and “Stanley Cup,” as well as team names. Kalshi has skated around licensing restrictions in the past by instead using generic terms like “pro hockey tournament.”

The NHL has deals with sportsbooks including DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM, but its tie-up with Kalshi and Polymarket marks its first time entering the rink with prediction markets. The key difference, according to Kalshi: Gamblers bet against other users on prediction markets but against the bookie’s odds on sportsbooks. Critics say, “Tomayto, tomahto.”

Crystal Betting Ball

Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcomes of events ranging from which team will win a particular game to when the government shutdown will end. Polymarket traders have bet more than $4 million on whether the US government will confirm the existence of aliens (there’s a 4% chance, apparently).

Trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi hit record highs last week, surpassing $2 billion for the first time and beating previous highs from last year’s presidential election. Sports betting is the biggest money-mover for both platforms, racking up $415 million in trades on Polymarket and $867 million on Kalshi, which was boosted by a recent partnership with Robinhood.

But it has been a bumpy road:

• Since they’re similar to futures markets, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, state officials and Native American tribes are suing the platforms, alleging they are illegal sports-betting operators.
• Polymarket backed out of the US in 2022 after a settlement with the CFTC but is plotting its re-entry. It acquired a derivatives exchange called QCX earlier this year, which gives the kicked-out company an avenue for returning to the states.

Join ’Em to Beat ’Em: While regulators draw up the rulebook for prediction markets, sportsbooks are also getting in on the game. DraftKings said Tuesday it bought Railbird Technologies, which owns a CFTC-licensed event contracts exchange. The sportsbook plans to launch its “DraftKings Predictions” mobile app within months, marking its first push into prediction markets. But this won’t bench Polymarket, which said Tuesday it’ll clear trades for DraftKings’ new biz. Rival FanDuel, meanwhile, teamed up with derivatives exchange CME Group in August, with a plan to start offering event contracts later this year.

Gold was left looking rather ore-dinary this week, with a 5.7% drop on Tuesday marking the metal’s worst day since 2013.

On Wednesday, futures stabilized. Up 0.2%, prices were close to flat, and investors were left to ponder whether factors that led the metal to a historic rally this year will continue to pan out.

Nuggets of Truth

Even with this week’s tumble, bullion investors can take gold comfort in knowing the noble metal, up nearly 60% in 2025, is headed for its best year since 1979. Moreover, what sent gold prices skyrocketing in the first place remains largely unchanged: Central banks are expected to continue diversifying away from the US dollar, Federal Reserve rate cuts that traditionally make gold more attractive are expected and hedge-worthy geopolitical risks are in no short supply.

Kevin Khang, senior international economist at Vanguard, highlighted in a note on Wednesday how gold’s future is situated between two economic outlooks. There’s optimism, he noted, based around the “transformative potential of AI” and the potential that “innovations will provide outsized returns as they transform the economy and industries.” This favors equities and has fueled the year’s stock market rally. On the other hand, there are the “downside risks” like inflation and fiscal deficits in advanced economies that have increased demand for gold. “Ultimately, this rare dual rally reflects a market grappling with both extraordinary promise and profound uncertainty,” he wrote. “We’re at a moment in time where optimism and caution coexist, and where investors must navigate both with care.” Meanwhile, one of the world’s largest gold miners, Newmont, will report its latest earnings today. One analyst warned that the high point of gold’s recent bull run won’t be reflected:

• “For those who think it will be a blowout quarter for Newmont, they may want to temper expectations,” Zacks stock strategist Tracey Ryniec said on Wednesday. “It will be another great quarter like Q2 was, but gold prices didn’t soar over $4,000 an ounce until Q4. Gold prices were mostly in a narrow range of $3,250 to $3,500 for most of Q3, until prices started to break out again at the very end of the quarter.”
• Shares in Newmont rose 0.8% on Wednesday, stabilizing after a 9% drop that coincided with Tuesday’s gold selloff. Miners, which are typically more stable stocks, have had a blockbuster year, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 116%.

Stress Test: A strengthening US dollar and a series of strong earnings reports on Wall Street were among the factors that threw cold water on gold euphoria on Tuesday, but so was an apparent easing of US-China trade tensions. On Wednesday, the geopolitical standoff appeared poised for escalation, as Reuters reported that US officials are considering curbing shipments of goods made with American software to the world’s second-largest economy.