Has there ever been an interest rate cut with such a long, dramatic, scrutinized gestation period? No matter, Wall Street is already thinking, what have you done for me lately?

The Federal Reserve reconvenes today for what may just be the most loaded, and consequential, central bank meeting in modern history. A quarter-point slash is now all but certain to be announced tomorrow — and indeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted as much since the group’s last meeting in July. But is the seemingly never-ending era of “higher-for-longer” truly over? Or is there an even more fraught period of monetary policy to come?

A Two-Front War

To be clear: conventional wisdom says that this week’s rate cut (a 96% certainty as of Monday, according to CME’s FedWatch tool) is just the first step in a prolonged rate-slashing campaign. Traders are roughly 70% certain of another quarter-point cut at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings this year, in October and December, per FedWatch. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts are pricing in two more for 2026, while Morgan Stanley analysts are penciling in three cuts next year — in January, April, and July.

Recent data shows the labor market is cooling even faster than previously thought. Meanwhile, Wall Street traders don’t just see cuts as a way to stave off a recession, but as fuel for an economic resurgence — The Wall Street Journal dubbed it the “run-it-hot” trade on Monday, as equities continue to notch new records.

Still, not everyone is as optimistic — and, as per usual, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may soon again find himself between a rock and a hard place:

• Data released from the US Labor Department last week showed that inflation increased 2.9% year-over-year in August, or the highest reading since January, and 0.4% month-over-month. Both metrics marked an acceleration from the month before, and evidence suggests consumers are just starting to feel the tip of the spear of tariff-induced inflation.
• “[The Fed] will not be cutting because we have good news on inflation. They’ll be cutting because we have bad news on employment,” Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist and a former Federal Reserve Board economist, told Yahoo Finance.

Three’s Company: Future fed meetings will likely remain contentious. If all goes according to plan and paperwork gets filed quickly, the White House’s Fed board of governors nominee Stephen Miran — who received senate approval on Monday — may join the central bank’s meeting today. Miran is expected to push for a more hawkish half-point cut, in-line with the White House’s preferences. That also means Powell may soon be managing a Fed board that isn’t just divided — but divided three different ways: fast-cutters, slow-and-steady cutters, and wait-and-seers. Nor does anyone expect the Greek chorus in Washington that’s been hounding him to stop anytime soon.

We just had a flashback to … well, every year between 2007 and 2020.

Why? Because Apple may just have a hit on its hands. And, no, we’re not talking about The Studio, the Seth Rogen-led Apple TV+ satire that just had a record breaking night at the Emmys. We’re talking hardware. Early preorder data shows strong demand for the Cupertino company’s iPhone 17 and its ultra-thin Air model, despite both debuting last week to what felt like modest aplomb.

Golden Opportunity

Between tariff troubles and the apparent clutches of the so-called innovator’s dilemma, Apple’s year of woe needs little recap. Its share price is down just under 3% year-to-date, and two notable analyst downgrades last week looked like a pair of bitter cherries atop a slowly melting $3 trillion sundae.

Now here comes the rebound. An analyst note from JPMorgan published Sunday noted that demand for the new iPhone variants is running ahead of last year’s new models. That concurs with Bank of America analysts who found that the iPhone 17’s ship dates — often a proxy for demand — are the highest for any model since the iPhone 11. The early indicators have been enough to trigger a notable phenomenon for Apple’s share price:

• Apple stock climbed more than 1% Monday, officially putting it into “Golden Cross” territory, according to a Barron’s analysis. That’s when an asset or an index’s 50-day moving average climbs ahead of its 200-day moving average, typically indicating a bull run to come.
• Apple is proof of the golden cross phenomenon. Through its company history, Apple stock has averaged a 9% gain over six months following a golden cross moment, and a more than 18% gain over an entire year, according to Dow Jones market data seen by Barron’s.

Fourth Year’s the Charm: So what’s behind the resurgent iPhone demand? A full one-fifth of the world’s 1.5 billion iPhone users haven’t upgraded their devices in at least four years, according to estimates from WedBush Securities analyst Dan Ives — making 2025 ripe for a massive upgrade cycle. No wonder we’ve started to notice our phones slowing down.

The United States has required public companies to report earnings on a quarterly basis for over half a century. Will 2025 soon be the response to a Jeopardy! prompt about when that chapter in financial history ended?

President Donald Trump suggested in a social media post Monday that — “Subject to SEC Approval” — US companies should have to report only twice a year. With his red-tape-averse Securities and Exchange Commission chair Paul Atkins in place, analysts at TD Cowen predicted there’s a 60% chance he gets his wish.

The Long and the Short Game

The SEC first required semi-annual reporting for US publicly traded companies in 1955, before upping that to every three months in 1970. The simple idea was to increase transparency — 1970 happened to be the year Penn Central collapsed in what was then the largest bankruptcy in US history, with management in that case less transparent than a block of obsidian locked in a five mile-deep cave. Standards were again tightened by lawmakers in 2002, this time in the wake of the Enron collapse, when Congress required the CEO and CFO to sign off on quarterly reports.

Which brings us to the arguments. Those in favor of the status quo say quarterly reporting means investors get more information more frequently, which allows them to make better, more informed decisions. It levels the playing field between investors and insiders. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has had a pretty fantastic run in the last half century, which suggests the reporting burden hasn’t hindered corporate performance. Those who are opposed to the status quo – and there are many, not just Trump – say companies should be encouraged to adopt long-term strategies:

• The influential law firm Wachtell Lipton wrote “quarterly cadences are often deeply disconnected from long-term business cycles, key business drivers, customer dynamics, innovation opportunities and market realities,” adding that they’re “disconnected from the time frames over which retail investors who are saving for retirement, looking to buy a home and pay college tuition are seeking a return.”
• A potential compromise could be found in the thoughts of Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, two people who know a lot about investing and running a publicly traded company. They jointly advocated in 2018 for companies to keep quarterly reports but stop issuing quarterly profit forecasts, which aren’t legally mandated. Having to report every three months, Buffett and Dimon wrote, leads executives to “hold back on technology spending, hiring, and research and development to meet quarterly earnings forecasts that may be affected by factors outside the company’s control.”

What’s the Difference? If the US moved reporting standards to twice a year, it would align with the United Kingdom and some EU countries. The UK, as it happens, experimented with quarterly reporting from 2007 to 2014 before reverting, but not before providing some useful data. The CFA Institute found that quarterly reporting requirements “had no material impact on levels of corporate investment” but did increase the amount of analyst coverage on a company, as well as the accuracy of those analysts’ earnings forecasts. So hug an analyst in your life today.