When it comes to the past, present and future of the US economy, perhaps the only universally agreed-upon certainty is universally agreed-upon uncertainty. But will routine uncertainty give way to nervous sweating and full-body clenching?

Maybe. A possible (perhaps even likely) government shutdown this week could pre-empt Friday’s much-anticipated jobs report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, thus delaying a crucial macroeconomic snapshot. On Monday, Wall Street braced for a further drift into the unknown.

Shutdown and Out in Washington, D.C.

Here’s what we do know: Congress has until 12:01 a.m. on October 1 to pass spending bills that could avert a shutdown. And while shutdowns are rare, historically speaking (there have been 20 since 1976), the words “historically speaking” don’t tend to apply in 2025. While most shutdowns lasted only a day or two, the record 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019 cost the US economy at least $3 billion, or a roughly 0.02% ding to annual GDP, according to the Congressional Budget Office. This time around, the White House and the Office of Management and Budget are threatening that temporary furloughs may become permanent layoffs for thousands of federal workers.

In other words, a shutdown would further disrupt and obfuscate 2025’s chaotic US economy and further strain a labor market that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell just said required a “risk-management cut” to interest rates. (Needless to say, a protracted shutdown and subsequent data gap would further complicate Powell’s life as the Fed’s rate-setting committee prepares to meet again on October 28).

That said, the extended equity market bull run charged right through the typically sleepy September season (remember what we said about “historically speaking” trends in 2025?), fueled in part by said Fed rate cut. That has some on Wall Street downright chipper, even in the face of a possible shutdown:

• On Monday, Bank of America analysts raised their 12-month target for the S&P 500, now predicting an 8% gain by this time next year. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts on Monday upgraded their outlook for equities over a three-month horizon from “neutral” to “overweight,” citing resilient corporate earnings and the historically strong performance of equities during late-cycle slowdowns in times of low recession risk and strong policy support.
• And here’s another “historically speaking” trend that Wall Street loves to hear: In the three months after the passage of a budget following prior shutdowns since 1976, the S&P 500 has seen average returns of 2.9%, according to an LPL Financial note published Monday.

In My Froth Era: On the flipside, there are still hints that the market is already topping out. In the Monday note, LPL Financial flagged that the broader market is trading at an 11% premium to the 200-day moving average, or the highest point since December 2024. Meanwhile, BTIG analysts have flagged that the S&P 500 has gone over 100 trading days without falling below its 50-day average, an unusually long stint.

Video game-maker Electronic Arts has agreed to go private for $55 billion in the biggest-ever buyout of a public company. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, along with private equity firms Silver Lake and Affinity Partners, will pay $210 per share to EA’s investors. That’s nearly 25% more than what the stock was worth before The Wall Street Journal reported details of the deal on Friday.

EA has been making popular titles like “The Sims” and “Madden NFL” for decades. But recent years have left the company floundering like a Sim in a pool with no ladder.

Not All Fun and Games

The gaming industry boomed during the pandemic, but its rapid growth didn’t continue once consumers could go outside and touch grass, en masse, again. EA contracted with the broader industry, reducing its workforce through several rounds of layoffs, shutting down development studios and canceling games. The company’s stock experienced its biggest single-day slide in 17 years in January after executives slashed annual bookings guidance.

The problem: Free-to-play games like “Fortnite” dominate the gaming industry, not $80 console titles. Plus, games like EA’s upcoming “Battlefield 6” are under immense pressure to succeed since they cost hundreds of millions of dollars to make. So EA’s switching its focus:

• EA already made three-quarters of its revenue last year from live-service games that players continue to pour money into after the initial purchase by buying updates and in-game perks. The buyout deal could see EA take that strategy a step further.
• Analysts said the Saudi fund could see some of EA’s biggest titles turn into games that can be played on mobile devices and streaming apps like Netflix. The new games could copy the successful “Fortnite” playbook by being free to play and making their money from in-game purchases.

Pressing Buttons: The massive buyout of EA could spark investor interest in gaming companies: Shares of EA and other gaming companies, including Take-Two and Roblox, rose yesterday. But the deal has a vital level to complete first: regulatory approval. Regulators may question whether the Saudi fund’s involvement raises national security concerns. EA’s games have a trove of data on American gamers that goes beyond their “Battlefield” kill/death ratios. The Saudi fund has been expanding its gaming interests with sizable stakes in EA and rival gaming company Take-Two Interactive, as well as acquiring the gaming division of Pokémon Go-maker Niantic. Saudi Arabia also hosted the Esports World Cup last year.

Major Danish biotech Genmab set its sails southwest across the North Sea on Monday, striking an $8 billion deal to acquire Dutch oncology specialist Merus.

While but one deal, it tells a story of patents and M&A that analysts are watching closely across the pharmaceuticals sector.

Tending to the Pipeline

Genmab has traditionally employed a licensing model, teaming with larger companies to commercialize its treatments. For example, its blockbuster bone marrow cancer treatment, Darzalex, is licensed to a Johnson & Johnson subsidiary in exchange for royalties. Genmab forecasts that it will earn up to $2.4 billion from that arrangement this year, amounting to roughly 65% of its revenue.

Which brings us to the subject that keeps biotech executives up at night: the patent cliff. Darzalex patents expire in the US in 2029, in Japan in 2030 and in Europe in 2031, leaving a major hole to fill. Cue the Merus deal, which would add the breakthrough head-and-neck-cancer treatment, petosemtamab, to Genmab’s portfolio. The drug, which has received two breakthrough designations from the US Food and Drug Administration, successfully completed Phase II studies in May, with Phase III data expected next year, paving the way for a planned 2027 launch. Leerink analysts said Monday that a combination of petosemtamab and Merck’s Keytruda could “become the standard of care.” Genmab expects to earn at least $1 billion from the drug by 2029 and multi-billions in the years to follow, which might explain why it paid a hefty premium:

• Genmab agreed to purchase all of Merus’ common shares for $97 each, 41% over their Friday closing price (they rose 36% to $93.67 on Monday). However, analysts at Denmark’s Sydbank, noting that head and neck cancer is the sixth most common type of cancer with a $4 billion addressable market, suggested the premium is worth it, writing that petosemtamab “complements Genmab’s existing antibody-based portfolio and pipeline very well” and has “multi-blockbuster potential.”
• Sydbank said Genmab, whose New York-listed shares rose 0.9% Monday, is undervalued considering the treatments for lung cancer and ovarian and pelvic cancer in its pipeline as well as a lymphoma treatment already on the market. Also of note is that petosemtamab is being tested against colon cancer, which impacts a lot more patients than head and neck cancer, potentially opening up a much bigger market.

An M&A Spark: In the last two years, major biotech firms including AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Merck and Bristol Myers Squibb have announced acquisitions meant to expand and strengthen their cancer treatment portfolios, but overall M&A in the space has been lagging. BMO analysts said in a note Monday that they were “encouraged” that Genmab’s acquisition and Pfizer’s $4.9 billion takeover of obesity drugmaker Metsera, announced last week, “could start to spur broader M&A in the sector.”