When it comes to overcoming global crises, America has a history of doing some heavy lifting. And new estimates suggest the world’s largest economy is poised to pull the world out of its pandemic funk.
Economists believe the U.S. economy in the second quarter grew to recoup its late-2019 size, helping to lift global output above pre-pandemic levels for the first time.
America The Bountiful
The output of the Group of 20 major economies — that is, the goods and services they produced — already topped pre-pandemic levels in Q1, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
But with American industry firing on all cylinders and another quarter in the books, output worldwide may now be higher than before the pandemic hit:
- Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate that figures released Thursday will show U.S. GDP grew 8.5% in the second quarter, driving it above the $19.2-trillion level seen in Q4 2019.
- The OECD now predicts U.S. GDP will be higher by the end of 2022 than the organization forecast before the pandemic began. Europe, however, is expected to lag behind, with the economies of Spain and Italy not recovering until the second half of next year.
The International Monetary Fund predicts the global economy will grow 6% this year, but much of that growth is tilting towards well-to-do countries with widespread vaccine rollouts.
Retail, The Real Tale: Investors across the globe are racing into U.S. financial assets. In the first half of 2021, over $900 billion was put into U.S.-domiciled mutual and exchange-traded funds, according to Refinitiv Lipper. Not only is that a record since the data was first tracked in 1992 — it’s more than was put into funds everywhere else in the world in the first half of 2021 combined.