S&P Global Shares Dragged by Market’s “Most Bearish Possible” AI Anxieties

As a Big Three ratings agency, S&P Global is usually the one handing out grades on Wall Street.

After the company reported its fourth quarter and full year earnings on Tuesday, markets got their turn to render a verdict. Unfortunately, the financial information and analytics provider’s revenue proved unable to overcome a wave of AI-driven investor jitters, meaning yesterday’s grade came back like one handed down by a high school’s grumpy AP chemistry teacher.

Software’s Softening Up

In the four trading days before Tuesday, S&P Global mostly sidestepped the Great Software Panic, its shares falling a mere 3.8% in all. That changed when the company reported. Revenue increased 9% year-over-year in the fourth quarter to $3.9 billion, in line with Wall Street estimates. Of note, the indices business, which maintains the blue chip S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, saw revenue climb 14%. 

But that couldn’t overcome the current AI-induced freakout moment. S&P Global’s forecast for 2026 didn’t help either, as executives expect revenue growth to slow to between 6.6% and 8.6%, down from 9% last year. All told, the company’s shares tanked 9.7% on Tuesday:

• “The AI anxiety will likely linger,” said analysts at ClearStreet before the earnings announcement, suggesting firms will simply have to deal with the market’s fretting du jour. Meanwhile, even as revenue at S&P’s ratings division rose 8% in the quarter, the selloff reverberated at rival ratings agency Moody’s, whose shares lost 6.8%.
• Analysts at JPMorgan flagged the selloff as an overreaction, writing it’s “unclear whether AI will ultimately depend on software infrastructure or replace it, but current market pricing is expressing the most bearish possible outcome, which we view as an overshoot at this time.”

Buyback Their Affection: S&P Global shares are now down over 23% this year, but there are signs of value. CEO Martina Cheung noted S&P rewarded shareholders with a whopping $6.2 billion in 2025, $1.2 billion in the form of dividends and $5 billion in share buybacks, which is equal to more than 100% of the company’s adjusted free cash flow. Tuesday’s earnings report said S&P Global intends to return roughly 85% of free cash flow to investors this year. The current share price of $444 also significantly trails the average analyst target price of $615, implying a roughly 38% upside, with most rating it a buy.