Is Nike Pulling Off Its Comeback Plan?

It’s just the kind of rousing comeback you might see in one of those inspirational Nike commercials, only this one was a little more personal for the globe-straddling athletic footwear and apparel colossus.

After spending a couple of post-pandemic years shifting between various direct-to-consumer strategies, facing rising competition from newcomers like On (Clouds) and Hoka, and sitting particularly exposed to the upending of the global trading order, Nike is starting to do it again. It’s why the company received an upgrade from an analyst at JPMorgan, who, on Monday, had a fitting message to investors about Nike stock: “Just buy it!” 

‘Just Buy It’

So how big a hole is the company in? During its fiscal 2025 earnings call a month ago, Nike said it projects new tariffs will saddle it with $1 billion in additional costs this year, although it also plans to pass some of those costs on to consumers via “surgical” price hikes. The company already instituted a wave of price increases across its lines in May. The new costs aren’t at all surprising. Nearly half of all Nike shoes and about one-third of Nike’s apparel are produced in Vietnam, which is now subject to a 20% tariff (and a 40% tariff on goods shipped through Vietnam from other countries). China, meanwhile, accounts for nearly a quarter of its suppliers. And the company’s woes began well before the trade war; in its third-quarter earnings report in March, Nike reported a 9% decline in global sales amid rising competition.

Full-year earnings didn’t offer much reprieve, with net income falling 44%. And yet, analysts see evidence that a turnaround plan is starting to pay off: 

• In May, the company announced that it would return to selling its products on Amazon after six years, marking just the latest (and perhaps greatest) pivot back toward third-party retailers and wholesalers following a messy push into the DTC space a few years ago.
• Meanwhile, its fourth-quarter results, which were better overall than Wall Street analysts expected, showed that its recent efforts to prioritize sports equipment and performance gear over fashion and lifestyle brands are paying dividends. For instance, its recently-launched Vomero 18 running shoes generated $100 million in sales in just about three months on store shelves.

Running Up That Hill: “We see the model at an inflection for revenue growth to re-accelerate into the second half of 2026 and 2027, following several quarters of franchise product lifecycle management and inventory liquidation headwinds,” JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss wrote in the recent note, which upgraded Nike stock from neutral to overweight. The seal of approval comes just weeks after a similar upgrade from Goldman Sachs. Shares of Nike bounced nearly 4% on Monday; its share price is now up almost 8% year-to-date, after suffering a roughly 27% wipeout from New Year’s until April’s infamous “Liberation Day.”