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Waffle House’s suffering is our suffering.
Last week, the beloved (mostly late night) breakfast chain announced it’d be adding a $0.50 “egg surcharge,” yoking customers with the extra costs that come from a national egg shortage and skyrocketing prices caused by the avian flu outbreak. Eggflation is bedeviling nearly every link in the food supply chain. Oh, you’ve noticed?
Shell-Shocked
Egg prices are actually not quite as high as they were in January of 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but they’re getting close. That’s one sign that we’re now in the third year of the current wave of the avian flu — and historically speaking, past waves have only lasted a single season. “Unfortunately, I look at all of it as just part of the new status quo of where we are in the world,” Gregg Majewski, CEO of Craveworthy Brands and former CEO of Jimmy John’s, told The Daily Upside.
Worse, avian flu cases seem to be escalating. According to the latest figures from the US Department of Agriculture, 7 million chickens were culled in November, followed by 18 million in December and 23 million in January. In other words: Expect the volatility to stay. And, for at least the foreseeable future, we’re on the price upswing part of the cycle:
- The process of disinfecting and verifying the safety of a farm “can be lengthy,” Dr. Elaine Vanier, technical scheme lead of animal welfare at food safety certifier NSF, told The Daily Upside. And afterward, it takes a new flock of chickens up to 16 weeks to start laying eggs.
- The months-long setback is likely to affect prices for the rest of the year. Last week, the USDA said egg prices are likely to rise as much as 20% before the end of 2025.
What Came First? “Data suggests that consumers have largely shaken off higher egg prices thus far,” R.J. Hottovy, Head of Analytical Research at Placer.ai, told The Daily Upside. The real system shock would be if the avian flu starts affecting the price of chicken itself, which would be “five times as bad for the restaurant industry,” Majewski said. So far, there’s no indication that chicken products will be affected, and it’s unlikely they will be. But let’s not count our chickens before they… well, you get it.
