Tesla Revs Up Earnings as Investors Focus on the Future over the Now

Investors are poring over Elon Musk’s prolific X posts (~94 a day, Sasa has found) for hints about what to expect from Tesla’s earnings, due Wednesday. 

The billionaire CEO seems to be trying to temper expectations, posting that production is “agonizingly slow” for both the Optimus robot and the autonomous Cybercab. At the same time, Musk has been hyping the capabilities of full self-driving. 

Progress on those plans will be pivotal on Wednesday. Even though analysts expect Tesla to notch revenue declines in the holiday quarter, as EV sales continue to slip, investors have shown that they’re willing to electrify the stock as long as they think Musk’s on the road to making his futuristic vision a reality. 

Shifting Gears

No matter what Musk posts the most about on X, EV sales still make up the vast majority of Tesla’s revenue. And it’s no longer the No. 1 EV seller. Earlier this month, Tesla shared that it delivered about 1.6 million vehicles last year, a 9% drop from 2024. China’s BYD, meanwhile, sold 2.3 million. 

Tesla faces industry-wide issues, including the expiration of Biden-era tax incentives and the bargain prices consumers can find on the used EV lot. But it also faces Tesla-specific problems, like owners buying “Elon Sucks” bumper stickers.

The EV-maker’s shifting its focus, and so are investors: 

• Tesla engineer Lars Marovy called the next-gen Roadster, which could start production as soon as next year, “the last best driver’s car.” Four of the top five questions Tesla shareholders upvoted to be asked at the upcoming earnings call concern full self-driving and Optimus (the other question is about whether Tesla shareholders will be prioritized if and when SpaceX goes public). 
• But progress on the new tech is start-and-stop. Tesla last week put a handful of driverless robotaxis on the road in Austin. The camera-only cars (rivals also use sensors) have raised eyebrows among critics who fear they could hinder its wider rollout. Meanwhile, Tesla said production of Cybercabs would start this year and Optimus bots “hopefully” next year.

Mag 7, Shmag 7: Tesla’s one of the first Magnificent 7 companies to report this earnings season, with Meta and Microsoft slated for the same day. However, as generative AI companies dominate headlines, it’s unclear whether their performance is still the most accurate way to gauge broader investor sentiment. The internet has suggested a new acronym: MANGO, which includes Microsoft, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google DeepMind and OpenAI.