Energy Crisis Powers Up Big Payday for LNG Exporter Venture Global

The conflict in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have suddenly placed the US-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry in the driver’s seat of a rapidly changing global energy order. And there’s one company in particular putting its pedal to the metal. 

According to a note from Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott published Monday, LNG exporter Venture Global has emerged as a unicorn, worthy of a rare double upgrade. In perfect timing, the note comes on the same day that Venture Global launched its first national advertising campaign, featuring an ad narrated by none other than Billy Bob “Landman” Thornton. Yeah, we think Venture Global is really feeling its oats these days.

Spot Check

Morgan Stanley is hardly alone in identifying the present upside for Venture Global. Wells Fargo raised its price target for the company last week, while Citigroup did the same earlier this month. And plenty of investors are likely to see the Morgan Stanley hat tip more as validation than recommendation: Shares of Venture Global climbed nearly 29% last week and are up about 128% so far this year.

With shipments from Qatar, producer of about 20% of the world’s LNG, suddenly in doubt, countries across Asia and Europe are rapidly rethinking their supply lines. And Venture Global is in the perfect spot to take advantage:

• According to McDermott, a full 30% of Venture Global’s cargoes through the rest of the year are open to “spot pricing,” which means they can be sold at market prices rather than at a fixed price predetermined by negotiated long-term contracts. Through 2029, that figure rises to 40% of Venture Global’s cargoes.
• That makes Venture Global the most upside-exposed domestic LNG exporter in the game as crimped global supplies raise prices, writes McDermott. Each $1 change in liquefaction fees for 1 million British thermal units of natural gas may impact Venture Global’s adjusted 2026 earnings by as much as $625 million, the company says.

Strait Talk: US trade negotiators have now turned LNG demand into the latest and perhaps biggest bargaining chip in efforts to finalize a trade deal with the European Union. After much delay (due largely to US threats to invade Danish territory Greenland), the European Parliament has scheduled a Thursday vote on the trade pact, which includes agreements to buy $750 billion worth of US energy, including LNG, by 2028. According to a Financial Times report on Monday, American negotiators have framed the vote as a last chance for the bloc to secure “favorable” access to American LNG supplies.