Wanna Bet? MLB Makes Polymarket Its Official Predictions Market Partner

As far as baseball surprises go, this one was a little more predictable than the all-star-stacked Team USA losing the World Baseball Classic.

On Thursday, Major League Baseball threw a curveball with a spin rate that would do Charlie Morton proud, making Polymarket the official prediction markets exchange of the American pastime. It’s the latest step toward legitimacy for the industry, though it comes amid fresh legal challenges and while MLB faces a gambling scandal of its own.

Tipping Pitches

The rapid rise of prediction markets and legalized sports betting has put integrity front and center for organized sports, and perhaps none more than professional baseball. Last season, federal prosecutors indicted Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz in an ongoing case that alleges the pair were participating in an illegal gambling scheme. 

Worse, the pair weren’t alleged to have thrown entire games, a la the infamous 1919 Chicago Black Sox, but merely to have rigged certain pitches, highlighting how hyper-specific prop bets open the door to far more discrete improper behavior.

MLB is moving forward with the Polymarket partnership anyway, in a deal that Front Office Sports reported will net the league $300 million over four years. MLB insists the deal increases integrity:

• While the arrangement gives Polymarket the rights to MLB trademarks and logos, MLB says it will now work with Polymarket to identify and restrict shady contracts that could pose integrity risks, such as bets on individual pitches or umpire decisions.
• Meanwhile, MLB also said Thursday that it a signed a “memorandum of understanding” with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction contracts. MLB said it would engage in information-sharing and other integrity-protecting efforts with the CFTC.

State of the Gambling Union: In fact, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred pitched prediction markets Thursday as potentially more immune to illegal behavior than online sportsbooks: “The fact that you have a federal regulatory scheme makes our life a lot easier as opposed to … sports betting, where you’re going state by state.” Speaking of states, the state of Arizona filed criminal charges this week against prediction market Kalshi, alleging its peer-to-peer prediction contracts amount to an illegal gambling operation. One league source told ESPN that MLB could void its contract with Polymarket if courts end up ruling prediction markets violate state laws. Now, that sounds like a “one strike, you’re out” policy.