Less than a year after starting to dabble in buffered ETFs, Goldman Sachs is about to become one of the biggest names in the game.

The Wall Street giant has agreed to buy defined-outcome ETF firm Innovator Capital Management for $2 billion, it announced Monday. Expected to close during the second quarter of 2026, the purchase will catapult Goldman from its status as a newcomer to the second-largest asset manager in the category, adding $28 billion in assets and putting it just behind First Trust, which manages about $33 billion in its target-outcome products. The three buffer ETFs Goldman Sachs Asset Management offers have been on the market for less than a year and represent about $36 million.

Innovator’s growth “is super impressive,” said Bryon Lake, global head of third party wealth at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Us bringing the Goldman reach, scope and capabilities to create some tailwinds on that business — we got excited about that.”

Uncertainty Is the Future

When Innovator added its first ETFs in 2018, the Covid-19 pandemic was still a couple of years away, but that event ended up supercharging the defined-outcome category. It fits a need for investors who want market exposure but, faced with volatility, want some cushion from losses. The current US market for such products sits at about $69 billion, though it is expected to grow. Cerulli anticipates it will cross $334 billion by 2030. Obviously, Goldman sees potential there as well. The company “has refocused its ETF efforts in 2025 and seen strong growth in part from their options-based ETF strategies like GPIQ and GPIX,” said Todd Rosenbluth, head of research and editorial at TMX VettaFi. The Innovator acquisition is “a key catalyst,” he added.

The company has yet to decide whether to keep the Innovator brand or fold it into Goldman’s branding, though it will have an answer for that before the deal closes, Lake said. Innovator’s more than 60 employees are expected to join Goldman.

It’s a market that is growing quickly:

• There are now more than 500 defined-outcome ETFs among 28 issuers.
• Innovator and First Trust represent about 75% of that, by assets.
• About 10% of financial advisors report using them, data from BlackRock show.

The Story’s Getting Old. Though defined-outcome ETFs have strong selling points for risk-averse investors during volatility (like that seen earlier this year around tariffs), the case for them may be stronger for retirees and near-retirees. With an estimated 10,000 people reaching retirement age every day, there will be more and more potential investors.

Innovator has “an incredible distribution team that is expert on selling sophisticated products and working with clients,” Lake said. “They are obsessed with clients in the way that Goldman is … This one made a ton of sense to us.”

The flux capacitor is operational. We just need enough runway to hit 88 miles per hour.

The year 2030 isn’t far off — although it’s 15 years past where Doc Brown and Marty McFly travelled in “Back to the Future Part II” — but a lot can change by then. The CFP Board revved up its DeLoreans in a recent report and outlined a handful of possible scenarios for AI’s transformation of financial advice over the next four years. Whether trust in AI grows or fades, the human elements of financial planning will become even more essential.

“The best way to understand AI is to use it,” said CFP Board Chair Liz Miller, adding that the most competitive advisors will showcase their expertise in areas such as tax, estate, insurance planning as well as the psychology of financial planning. While advisors do not need to worry about being replaced with AI, new competencies in the tech are required, she told Advisor Upside.

Great Scott!

In the first scenario, AI becomes a planner’s indispensable co-pilot, much like it is today but far more capable. Tasks such as client onboarding, portfolio management, complex risk modeling and compliance checks become faster and more accurate, allowing advisors to focus on client relationships.

The second scenario imagines AI assistants woven into every aspect of daily life: financial, personal, social and professional. Advisors who fail to integrate these tools risk being pushed out, while the most successful wealth managers are those who complement AI rather than compete with it, acting as interpreters between powerful tech and clients seeking clarity.

This is Heavy, Doc. But the future may not be fully AI-friendly. In a third scenario, trust in AI erodes after AI robo-advisors touted as the next big thing fail to adapt to sudden market shocks such as unexpected Federal Reserve rate cuts, causing double-digit losses for clients. Regulators respond with tighter rules on AI-driven advice, prompting Big Tech and fintech firms to retreat. Demand for human guidance surges, but the workforce struggles, especially after the number of CFPs falls 30% from 2025 amid fears of AI-driven disruption.

The final scenario places Silicon Valley at the center of Wall Street. Younger investors flock to tech-first advisory systems, disrupting traditional networks long dominated by banks and wirehouses. But when a global recession and political instability send AI-powered financial engines into chaos, confidence collapses and investors once again turn to human advisors to navigate uncertainty.

“Three imperatives showed up so strongly in every single scenario: Oversight of AI is essential, trust in financial planners is central and the future revolves around evolution over disruption,” Miller said.

As any amateur photographer knows, framing matters.

The way advisors present retirement income plans to their clients can radically alter clients’ perceptions, according to a Janus Henderson survey. Respondents were more satisfied when their income came from dividends as opposed to selling stock shares, and they were more likely to prefer delaying Social Security payments when timing-related variations in amounts were framed as a loss versus a gain. The findings point to the power behavioral finance can have over clients’ thoughts and opinions, allowing advisors to tailor their advice accordingly.

“Most of the literature suggests that higher-net-worth clients in good health are probably better off waiting to claim Social Security until age 70,” said Matt Sommer, who helped author the report. “Making small changes in how advisors communicate recommendations may have a significant impact on how clients process complicated information and ultimately make choices.”

Motivational Speech

Advisors will often present a Monte Carlo simulation, a statistical analysis showing the probability of different outcomes, to clients to illustrate the chances of retirement success or failure. But describing the outcomes in those terms might not yield the best results, according to the report, which found that clients were more comfortable when failure was instead framed as an opportunity to make spending adjustments. “Explaining Monte Carlo results as a success or failure can be interpreted as not having any say in one’s outcome,” Sommer said. “These feelings are disheartening and not very motivating. On the other hand, if the results are explained as something individuals can improve upon … the internal motivation needed to adopt and follow the plan is triggered.”

Other findings from the report include:

• Clients prefer dividend-paying stocks as their vehicle for income generation, with 39% already invested in them.
• More than seven in 10 clients are either “somewhat concerned” or “very concerned” that market volatility will negatively impact their ability to generate retirement income.

Frame of Mind. Ultimately, it’s advisors’ responsibility to communicate their clients’ investment and retirement plans to them in a way that makes them feel secure, Sommer said. “The key takeaway of our findings is that they are relatively simple for financial advisors to implement,” he added. “[Advisor] teams can discuss how these topics are presently conveyed and the best way to incorporate different language into their client service model moving forward.”