The world’s fastest-growing ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), is nearing $100 billion in assets, less than two years after its launch.

That puts it among the 20 biggest ETFs, only 18 of which are in the $100 billion-plus club. It clearly shows demand for digital assets, or at least for one product. BlackRock dominates the crypto ETF category, with the next-biggest competitor, Fidelity’s Wise Origin (FBTC), being roughly a quarter of the size. Of course, BlackRock is also the world’s biggest asset manager, at about $12.5 trillion, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute. The firm, which also manages the fourth-biggest crypto ETF, the $18 billion iShares Ethereum Trust, hasn’t shown any plans to expand into other digital assets. BlackRock declined to comment, but it has not been among the issuers filing for spot-price ETFs in XRP, Solana or other categories.

“The ETF game belonged to BlackRock long before crypto ETFs,” said Tyrone Ross, CEO of 401 Financial and Turnqey Labs. “Everyone else gets the crumbs, and because the market opportunity is so big, other providers can accumulate meaningful AUM with those crumbs.”

Profitable? Um, Just IBIT

The iShares ETF, which charges 0.25%, brings in revenue of about $240 million for BlackRock, Bloomberg analysts noted, making it the most profitable fund for the company. There’s a big incentive for companies to add spot-price crypto ETFs, though the Securities and Exchange Commission until recently was slow to approve many. That changed last month, when the regulator gave exemptions to the three big exchanges to use generic listing standards. The effect will be numerous new digital asset ETFs coming to market without a la carte approval by the SEC. Whether there’s investor appetite for numerous versions of Dogecoin is another matter.

“Other crypto tokens don’t have the same global adoption or characteristics that make Bitcoin such a strong store of value,” said Mike Casey, president of AE Advisors, who has been recommending Bitcoin allocations since 2019. “The spot ETFs are a frictionless way to add Bitcoin exposure for clients.” While IBIT has the most liquidity and largest market cap, he said the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) are also worth a look.

Some of the recent developments in crypto ETFs:

• BlackRock filed for an iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF.
• Rex-Osprey has two ETFs with staking capabilities (SSK and ESK).
• S&P Global is adding a Digital Markets 50 Index, tracking both equities and digital assets. Dinari, which partnered with S&P, is making a token specific to that index.

Let them eat crumb cake: There are billions of dollars in investments at stake, so expect a deluge of ETFs soon, even if only a small slice gain enough assets to survive. “The door is wide open now for other types of crypto ETFs,” Ross said. “It will be interesting to see how Solana is received and whatever comes after, like a Chainlink, Ripple or Litecoin.”

By the standards of the dismal science, as John Galbraith once described the economics profession, its practitioners just did a happy dance.

On Monday, the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) released its latest quarterly survey, which showed that members have hiked up their growth estimates for the rest of 2025 and through 2026, just a day after The Wall Street Journal released the results of its own quarterly assessment, which showed a similar uptick. It’s not all sunshine and roses, however, as both surveys still flag rising inflation and a weakening labor market going forward.

What a Drag

Compared with the NABE’s last survey in June and the WSJ’s in July, the professional forecasters this time around appear to be seeing the US macroeconomic glass as half-full rather than half-empty, though they definitely still see it as only half-full. The 40 economists surveyed by the NABE, for instance, predict that inflation-adjusted GDP growth will hit 1.8% this year, versus a forecast of just 1.3% in June, while the 64 economists polled by the WSJ revised their inflation-adjusted GDP growth forecasts to 1.9% compared with a measly 1% prediction in July. Both groups predicted the economy will maintain a similar pace next year, citing intense business investment as the main driver of growth.

Still, the surge in investment isn’t broadening the job market, with both groups expecting the unemployment rate to climb to 4.5% over the next year, up from its 4.3% rate in August. Both surveys also showed that economists expect tariffs to continue fueling inflation, though perhaps not as much as initially expected. The forecasters can’t help but see the surge in import duties, and their often unpredictable implementation, as having a noticeable impact on the economy:

• In the NABE survey, 60% estimate that tariffs will knock a half-percentage point from GDP due to rising costs and falling trade levels, with no survey respondents projecting that tariffs will boost economic growth.
• The economists surveyed by the WSJ said that tariffs will add 0.5% to the inflation rate (a lower number than projected before) and that more certainty around tariffs is helping reduce their overall impact. That said, the WSJ noted that the survey was conducted earlier this month, before the White House’s latest threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Info Vacuum: The WSJ survey was conducted after the federal government shutdown began (the NABE survey was conducted in late September), meaning its economists lacked the most recent Labor Department employment data. However, the Labor Department has since said that it’s recalling furloughed workers in order to complete a key inflation report, which will be released on October 24 rather than the original date of October 15. It must be completed by November 1 for the Social Security Administration to calculate an annual cost-of-living adjustment. By week’s end, meanwhile, we’ll have forecasts from another group of economists navigating the data fog: World finance leaders are gathering in Washington, DC, this week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Breakaway advisors opening up their own shops may grab all the headlines, but there’s an even more popular channel: independent broker-dealers.

IBDs grew 21% year-over-year in terms of AUM, according to Cerulli’s latest report — outpacing both captive broker-dealer outfits, which sell their own financial products, and RIAs. The IBD channel now accounts for 16% of overall industry assets and one-fifth of total advisor headcount. “The IBD channel has significantly outperformed all other channels this year in terms of total growth in AUM,” said Michael Rose, co-head of Cerulli’s wealth management practice and lead author of the report. “It’s not necessarily for the reason that people might assume. The growth … is really driven by consolidation.”

How IBDs Got Here

The M&A industry is booming, with the total number of IBDs in operation declining by more than a third over the past decade from about 124 in 2014 to 79 today. While the number of firms advisors can choose from has shrunk, the scale and capabilities of current offerings have increased, making them a more attractive option for independence-minded advisors. Don’t forget about the RIA channel, either. RIA consolidators that aggregate smaller firms now account for more than $1.5 trillion in AUM, which has led to the emergence of large, at-scale RIAs that can take on more clients and support more advisor teams.

“Ten-plus years ago, a practice that wanted to leave a traditional captive broker-dealer firm … They really were setting up their own practice,” Rose said. “They can still do that if they want ultimate control … Or they can tap into a variety of different at-scale RIAs, they can tuck into existing practices … The range of affiliation choices has really changed.”

Independence has always been appealing for advisors. According to the report:

• 71% of advisors said they would affiliate with an independent channel firm if they had to switch from their current company.
• 73% said greater autonomy would be a primary reason to choose an independent model if they were to switch.

Boutique or Bust. The future of independence may not look so rosy, however. Consolidation could make the boutique culture that a lot of breakaway advisors are looking for harder to find, Rose said. It’s just the way of the world, he added, given heightened regulatory complexity and the massive investments firms need to make in order to keep their tech stacks competitive.

“[Boutique firms] have more direct lines to senior management, and as IBDs consolidate and get larger, that boutique nature becomes harder to find,” Rose said. “Some advisors may not like that, but ultimately, that’s just the direction this business has to go.”