Good morning.
As 2025 winds down, Wall Street has one big question: How big will the bonuses be? Early signs point straight up.
NYSE member firms spent nearly 10% more on compensation, including salaries, bonuses and equity in the first half of 2025 than a year earlier, according to the New York State Comptroller. Strong dealmaking, rising stock prices, relatively stable employment and healthy bank earnings point toward another big payout, possibly surpassing last year’s record $244,700 average bonus. Still, the city’s budget projects the industry’s overall bonus pool will drop 14% year over year.
It all means that Wall Street’s finest may end 2025 singing “It’s the most wonderful time of the year,” or grumbling “Bah, humbug!”
Invest In The Chip Makers Behind The AI Revolution

Four tech giants — Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft — plan to spend over $300 billion on AI infrastructure this year, with most companies following suit.*
Much of this spending flows directly to chip makers. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) tracks the firms powering this build out, including Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom.
As organizations embed AI across industries, SMH offers diversified exposure to the leading semiconductor companies driving this transformation.
This Week’s Highlights
Why SPY Bled $31B This Year

They say a win for one is a win for all, but that might not hold true for ETFs.
The US exchange-traded fund market has made headlines this year for its massive growth, recently surpassing $12.7 trillion. But the boom hasn’t reached all corners of the ETF industry: Plenty of funds lost assets this year. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) have lost $31 billion and $9 billion in AUM year to date, respectively, according to VettaFi data. Experts attributed this to a combination of tariff concerns and cheaper alternatives.
“It’s just folks making tactical trades into other parts of the markets,” said Clark Allen, head of ETFs at the investment manager Horizon Investments. “Dollar weakness and concerns around the political climate and tariffs have happened this year, and that’s come to the detriment of SPY, but also to the benefit of international or growth-specific exposures.”
I SPY, With My Little Eye…
S&P 500 funds like SPY and IWM have been bleeding assets for several years as institutional investors allocate to cheaper alternatives with identical, or nearly identical, exposure. Increasingly popular SPY alternatives are State Street’s SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG) and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which have expense ratios of .02% and .03%, respectively, far cheaper than SPY’s and IWM’s .09% and .19% fees. “The S&P 500 is the S&P 500, whether you buy it for nine basis points or for two or three,” said Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF trends research at VettaFi. “So why not pay two or three?”
Other ETFs that have seen more than $6 billion in net outflows this year include:
- The iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF (EFG), which had $7.9 billion in outflows.
- The Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (COWZ), which had $6.5 billion in outflows.
Still, the tables could turn for SPY. “We tend to see, in the fourth quarter, institutional investors hide out in SPY,” Rosenbluth said. “If [institutional investors are] outperforming the broader market in December, they might ride that out by replicating the broader market and putting money into SPY.” Despite the outflow woes, he added, SPY probably isn’t going anywhere because of its status as a premium product that offers above-average liquidity.
Low-Energy. State Street’s Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) also had massive outflows totaling $8.2 billion year to date, which Horizon’s Allen said is evidence of decreasing energy prices. The war in Ukraine gave energy-heavy funds a boost back in 2022, but the sector has since underperformed relative to tech. “You’ve seen energy struggle,” Allen said. “I think it’s folks just saying, ‘Hey, I can’t hang on any longer, and I need to pivot into areas that I think are going to drive growth into the future.’”
Should the SEC Ease the Communications Rule?

Is that a personal call? Eh, whatever.
Under former chair Gary Gensler, the Securities and Exchange Commission zeroed in on rooting out off-channel communications and improper record storage. But with a new administration in charge, a major Wall Street trade group is urging the agency to rethink rules it calls “burdensome, costly and unnecessary.” During the Biden years, the SEC reached nearly 100 settlements for record-storage violations, totaling over $2.2 billion in penalties, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.
SIFMA asked the SEC last week to modernize and narrow its Communications Rules, arguing the current framework is too broad and outdated as technology evolves. “Communication has substantially moved away from paper toward e-mail, text messaging, message boards, social media and other electronic platforms,” SIFMA wrote in a letter to SEC Chair Paul Atkins.
With the current SEC already taking a much more business-friendly approach than it did during the last presidential administration, potential changes could provide advisors with a little more leniency in how they communicate with clients.
Just Chill
SIFMA — which represents asset managers, banks and brokerages — said the broad interpretation of the rule has created excessive compliance burdens without improving investor protection. The group proposed several reforms, such as:
- Excluding trivial exchanges such as emojis, “I’m running late” messages or other immaterial correspondence.
- Omitting items like AI-generated meeting transcripts that SIFMA says aren’t true communications.
- Standardizing a three-year retention period for all client communications, instead of the current three years for broker-dealers and five for investment advisors.
“Regulators are focused on protecting both clients and advisors, but sometimes non-sensitive communication via text should not be a fineable offense,” said Tom Balcom, founder of 1650 Wealth Management. “With clients expecting 24/7 access to their advisors, they often feel that texting is acceptable even after we have stressed to them that off-channel communications are frowned upon.”
Way Ahead of You. Cracking down on off-channel communications was a hallmark of Gensler’s SEC, alongside heightened crypto oversight and ESG disclosure efforts. Last August, the agency fined 26 broker-dealers and RIAs a combined $392 million for “long-standing failures” to maintain proper electronic records. In a final push this January, it charged a dozen firms — including Charles Schwab and Blackstone — $63 million over client conversations held on personal devices or apps.
However, as of this summer, SEC enforcement claims were down nearly 50%, with the majority of the cases dealing with clear-cut investor fraud as opposed to communications and record storage. So it seems like SIFMA may already have a friend in Atkins.
Gold Rush Loses Momentum in Runup to Newmont Earnings

Gold was left looking rather ore-dinary this week, with a 5.7% drop on Tuesday marking the metal’s worst day since 2013.
On Wednesday, futures stabilized. Up 0.2%, prices were close to flat, and investors were left to ponder whether factors that led the metal to a historic rally this year will continue to pan out.
Nuggets of Truth
Even with this week’s tumble, bullion investors can take gold comfort in knowing the noble metal, up nearly 60% in 2025, is headed for its best year since 1979. Moreover, what sent gold prices skyrocketing in the first place remains largely unchanged: Central banks are expected to continue diversifying away from the US dollar, Federal Reserve rate cuts that traditionally make gold more attractive are expected and hedge-worthy geopolitical risks are in no short supply.
Kevin Khang, senior international economist at Vanguard, highlighted in a note on Wednesday how gold’s future is situated between two economic outlooks. There’s optimism, he noted, based around the “transformative potential of AI” and the potential that “innovations will provide outsized returns as they transform the economy and industries.” This favors equities and has fueled the year’s stock market rally. On the other hand, there are the “downside risks” like inflation and fiscal deficits in advanced economies that have increased demand for gold. “Ultimately, this rare dual rally reflects a market grappling with both extraordinary promise and profound uncertainty,” he wrote. “We’re at a moment in time where optimism and caution coexist, and where investors must navigate both with care.” Meanwhile, one of the world’s largest gold miners, Newmont, will report its latest earnings today. One analyst warned that the high point of gold’s recent bull run won’t be reflected:
- “For those who think it will be a blowout quarter for Newmont, they may want to temper expectations,” Zacks stock strategist Tracey Ryniec said on Wednesday. “It will be another great quarter like Q2 was, but gold prices didn’t soar over $4,000 an ounce until Q4. Gold prices were mostly in a narrow range of $3,250 to $3,500 for most of Q3, until prices started to break out again at the very end of the quarter.”
- Shares in Newmont rose 0.8% on Wednesday, stabilizing after a 9% drop that coincided with Tuesday’s gold selloff. Miners, which are typically more stable stocks, have had a blockbuster year, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 116%.
Stress Test: A strengthening US dollar and a series of strong earnings reports on Wall Street were among the factors that threw cold water on gold euphoria on Tuesday, but so was an apparent easing of US-China trade tensions. On Wednesday, the geopolitical standoff appeared poised for escalation, as Reuters reported that US officials are considering curbing shipments of goods made with American software to the world’s second-largest economy.
Advisor Upside is edited by Sean Allocca. You can find him on LinkedIn.
Advisor Upside is a publication of The Daily Upside. For any questions or comments, feel free to contact us at advisor@thedailyupside.com.
Disclaimer
*Source: CNBC as of February 2025.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit vaneck.com to read and consider the prospectus, containing the investment objectives, risks, and fees of the funds, carefully before investing. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. VanEck mutual funds and ETFs are distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation.
Fund holdings may vary. Visit vaneck.com/smh for a complete list of holdings.

