Elon Musk once promised that SpaceX wouldn’t go public until it delivered humans to Mars (lest pesky shareholders prioritize short-term profits over the long-term project of Martian colonization). The Red Planet must be within shouting distance, judging by the financial buzz. No, turns out it’s a lot easier to land on the S&P 500 these days than on Mars, so why wait?

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Musk’s aerospace company is moving ahead with plans to raise $30 billion for an initial public offering at an out-of-this-world valuation of $1.5 trillion, with a countdown clock set for mid- to late 2026. And while it may not be on course for Mars, the SpaceX rocket ship might yet deliver next year’s IPO market to a whole new stratosphere.

Reach For The Stars

SpaceX’s potential monster IPO would come after what has been a remarkable rebound year for public listings. Per another Bloomberg analysis published Wednesday, US IPO volume (not including SPACs and closed-end funds) is set to surpass $40 billion this year once medical supply company MedLine prices its IPO next week, easily besting last year’s total. Dealmakers on Wall Street are already preparing for an even bigger 2026. “The velocity of IPO pitch activity is overwhelming, in a good way, across every industry,” Jim Cooney, Bank of America’s head of Americas equity capital markets, told Bloomberg.

Already likely on deck for next year are names such as defense contractor York Space Systems and insurance firm Ethos Technologies, as well as crypto exchange Kraken and construction rental company EquipmentShare. But those names would be easily eclipsed by SpaceX, officially the world’s most valuable private company once again after a recent secondary share sale that valued the company at $800 million. And it may be one of a handful of shooting stars to go public next year:

• Joining SpaceX, of course, might be the world’s second-most-valuable private company, OpenAI, which is similarly eying a $1 trillion valuation. (The difference between SpaceX and OpenAI? SpaceX claims to have been cash flow positive for several years now.)
• Other “centicorns,” or private companies valued at $100 billion or more, possibly making public market debuts next year include Anthropic, ByteDance, DataBricks and Stripe; for reference, the median market cap of an S&P 500 company is about $40 billion. Per Bloomberg calculations, Wall Street could soon usher some $2.9 trillion worth of private companies into public markets.

Two Tickets to Paradise: While Musk may not have a ticket to Mars yet, a SpaceX IPO would be a second ticket to becoming the world’s first trillionaire. The first, of course, is Musk’s recently secured and first-of-its-kind 12-figure pay package at Tesla, which requires the company to reach some moonshot sales goals. Take it as a valuable lesson: Shoot for the moon, twice if you can, for even if you miss, you’ll land atop the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee delivered “no alarms and no surprises,” to quote the Radiohead song, as it cut its key overnight borrowing rate in line with Wall Street’s expectations.

After the latest quarter-point reduction to 3.5%-3.75%, however, there’s enough noise around future rate cuts to do the Thom Yorke-led Brit rockers proud.

Rose Colored Glasses

The 9-3 decision, which featured the most dissents since 2019, highlighted a split between FOMC members who think more cuts are needed to shore up the jobs market and those who believe further easing would inflame inflation. “Everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high and we want it to come down, and agrees that the labor market has softened and that there is further risk,” Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a news conference. “Where the difference is, is how do you weight those risks and what does your forecast look like? It’s very unusual to have persistent tension between two parts of the mandate.”

The latest reading of policymakers’ preferred inflation gauge came in well above officials’ 2% target at 2.8%. Powell said the Fed expects that figure to slow to roughly 2.4% by the end of 2026 and unemployment to hold at 4.4%.

The FOMC’s post-meeting statement suggested the bar for future cuts is higher. The Fed’s so-called dot plot, which tracks anonymized forecasts of officials, puts the median view at just one rate cut in 2026. That means Powell, whose term ends in May, could have taken his last whack at the salami. For at least one more day, though, markets celebrated the third consecutive rate cut under his leadership:

• Rate-sensitive investments rallied on Wednesday. The small-cap Russell 2000 index rose 1.3% and the State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF climbed 3%. UBS analysts have found that, since 1970, stocks are at their best “when the Fed cuts in non-recession periods,” averaging a 15% annualized return.
• Others think the optimism is overblown. “The rose-colored glasses may come off once investors realize that the path to lower interest rates may take longer — or may not materialize at all — to the extent that they believe it will,” said Chris Zaccarelli, Northlight Asset Management’s chief investment officer.

Who’s Next: President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will interview a “couple different people” to succeed Powell. He is expected to talk with Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and the presumed frontrunner, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, this week. Other potential candidates, the Financial Times reported, include Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.

Australian teens under 16 years old were kicked off major social platforms yesterday as governments and parents around the world grow increasingly skeptical that Big Tech will keep kids safe without intervention. The affected platforms include Facebook, Instagram, Kick, Reddit, Snapchat, Threads, TikTok, Twitch, X and YouTube. About 1.5 million, or 95%, of Australian 13- to 15-year-olds have used top social media sites.

Several other countries and US states are considering similar crackdowns, though few go as far as Australia’s.

Logged Out

Social media companies stand to lose billions in ad revenue if teens around the world are kicked off the platforms, not to mention the chance to get in front of potential lifelong scrollers early. A Harvard study found social platforms made $11 billion in revenue from ads targeted to kids and teens in 2022, with Snapchat, TikTok and YouTube garnering the bulk of those billions.

To avoid that fate, Meta expanded restrictions on teens’ Instagram accounts this summer to make the feeds they see PG-13. YouTube added age-estimating tech in July to better curate its platform to kids and teens, while Snap launched its version of driver’s ed, but for social media, in September.

It’s not enough for critics, some of whom are following Australia’s example:

• Malaysia plans to ban teens from social media starting next year. Denmark, Canada and Japan could be next as those countries debate bans of their own. A bill also sought to block teens from using some social sites in the US (called the RESET Act), but US lawmakers seem to have put it on the back burner in favor of other safety proposals that aren’t outright bans.
• Some states are becoming stricter: Florida plans to start booting anyone under 14 off social media and requiring parental approval for 14- and 15-year-olds. Nebraska passed a bill requiring parental approval for minors, too. More than 40 states have sued companies like Meta over concerns about teen social media addiction.

Easier Said Than Done: Companies including Google have warned that age limits are difficult to enforce. Australian teens have already found workarounds, including logging in with VPNs, or, as one teen told The Wall Street Journal, scanning their sibling’s face to fool facial analysis software.