What’s the difference between a US Treasury bond and an aspiring screenwriter in an LA coffee shop? The bond will eventually mature and make money.

That has long been the essential calculation making US debt one of the world’s most preferred safe haven investments. But on Wednesday, a weak 20-year Treasury auction and rising yields on other notes signaled weakening confidence in that premise. (The screenwriter still won’t make any money, though, so that half of the equation holds up).

Generating Interest

Last week, Moody’s became the last major credit rating agency to strip the United States of its perfect credit rating, citing administration after administration failing to rein in federal deficits and skyrocketing debt. Essentially, the credit rating downgrade means that the agency is slightly less assured of the US government’s ability to make good on what it owes.

It should be said that Moody’s, as well as competitors Fitch and Standard & Poor’s, still consider the US a very low credit risk, and the country has a pristine track record of paying its bills. But even a slight change in attitude toward US debt can have major consequences, as Wednesday showed:

• The US Treasury auctioned off $16 billion of newly issued 20-year bonds, but the government had to pay a yield of up to 5.046% to attract enough investors to complete the sale. That is considerably higher than the 4.81% when the Treasury auctioned off $13 billion worth of 20-year bonds last month and compares with a 4.613% average for the past half-dozen auctions.
• A higher yield at one of the Treasury’s regular auctions suggests weak demand because it means the Treasury had to offer greater returns to convince investors to buy government debt. Meanwhile, the current GOP spending plan, which narrowly passed the House in a pre-dawn vote Thursday and will now be debated in the Republican-controlled Senate, is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt due to its inclusion of tax cuts and spending increases that aren’t offset elsewhere.

After the auction, the yield on the 20-year note rose to 5.125%, the highest since November 2023. Yields on other, more widely followed 10-year and 30-year notes closed at 4.595% and 5.089%, respectively, breaking through their traditional psychological barriers of 4.5% and 5%. A 10-year yield above 4.5% is viewed as a signal of inflation and growth risks, which can spook markets — accordingly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9% Wednesday, the S&P 500 shed 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%.

One Bullish Bank: Not everyone’s negative: Morgan Stanley analysts painted a bullish picture of US assets, except for one, in a note on Tuesday. They expect the S&P 500 to surpass 6,500 by mid-2026, up more than 10%, aided by interest rate cuts and withdrawal from a full-on trade war. They also expect the 10-year yield to stabilize at 3.45% by that time. The one asset they’re not counting on is the US dollar, which weakened by 0.5% against a basket of currencies on Wednesday — but, the bank noted, it expects a weak dollar to lift the income of America’s multinationals.

April showers brought May flowers for Bitcoin: The No. 1 cryptocurrency surged past $109,500 yesterday, beating its previous record from January. Bitcoin has risen more than 40% from its April low, when fears around POTUS Trump’s tariffs saw traders pulling out of tech and crypto stocks.

Now, bullish signs abound: Traders are buying call options for when bitcoin hits $110,000, $120,000, and even $300,000 with expiration dates toward the end of June. Demand for short-term calls like these is surging, according to Amberdata.

Soft US inflation numbers released last week, paired with a de-escalation of global trade tensions, are likely contributing to bitcoin’s rebound. But what’s whipping hopes up to new highs is long-awaited progress on crypto regulation.

Under New Management

Crypto execs have long said they’d rather have formal rules to follow than fumble in the dark, especially after former SEC Chair Gary Gensler led a “regulation by enforcement” crackdown on the sector. Under Trump, new leaders with pro-crypto opinions (bye, Gensler) are pushing through regulatory frameworks.

Stablecoins are the first type of crypto getting fully fleshed-out bills, likely because their prices are pegged to assets like USD, making them less volatile than, say, memecoins such as bonk and dogwifhat. Boosting bitcoin this week, stablecoin legislation moved forward:

• The Senate voted to advance the first-ever US regulatory framework for stablecoins Monday night, ending a filibuster. That moves the bill to the Senate floor, where it could be passed as soon as this week.
• A House committee approved a separate stablecoin bill last month. The Senate and House bills will need to be reconciled before heading to Trump’s desk. The president has said he wants to sign crypto regulation before Congress’s August recess.

* Legislation’s Legitimizing. Bitcoin has already been getting a boost from traditional financial institutions buying it, and regulatory frameworks will likely encourage more to pile in. Morgan Stanley started letting its financial advisers pitch spot bitcoin ETFs to clients last year, while JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon (a known crypto skeptic) said Monday that his bank plans to let clients buy bitcoin. Another sign of bitcoin’s rising cred: The amount held by public companies jumped 31% this year to $349 billion, or 15% of all bitcoin, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. Bitcoin’s mainstreaming raises a red flag for some die-hards: the risk of centralization.

It’s a private equity love story, baby; just say “yes.”

On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Global Critical Logistics (GCL) — the live-events logistics firm that kept Taylor Swift’s historic Eras world tour on track — was acquired by media and entertainment-focused private equity group Providence for the hefty price tag of $1 billion. Consider it a big bet on the future of live events, which, in Swiftie speak, GCL knows about “All Too Well.”

Roadie Warriors

Providence’s interest in GCL is no surprise. The firm powered the Eras Tour as it traversed five continents, 51 cities, and 149 shows en route to generating a record-breaking $2 billion in revenue. That placed Swift — and GCL — at the forefront of a post-pandemic explosion in demand for live events and entertainment.

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, the total value of live music ticket sales in 2023 reached $25 billion, with total revenue for the industry hitting a record $31.5 billion. Last year, Live Nation Entertainment reported record revenue of $23 billion. While the live events business has had a slower start in 2025, things could turn around this summer:

• In its first-quarter earnings report earlier this month, Live Nation — which is so dominant in the industry that the Department of Justice has accused it of operating an illegal monopoly — reported its revenues in the first three months of the year were down 11%. However, total ticket sales of 95 million through mid-April marked a double-digit percentage increase from the year prior.
• That was led by an 80% increase in stadium ticket sales (the types of events GLC pulled off every night on the Eras Tour), and the company said that a 60% increase in the amount of stadium shows this summer could fuel a record season.

For the Love of the Game: It’s not just live music, either. GLC already has logistics contracts for the 2026 FIFA World Cup — where host duties will be shared by the US, Mexico, and Canada — and has previously worked with the NFL. The total value of the global live sporting events ticket market crossed $20 billion in 2024, according to Custom Markets Insights, and may reach $45 billion by 2033. Suffice it to say, there’s a lot of money to be made by the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce power couple.