The start of earnings season last week showed corporate America in the throes of Dickensian duality — the best and worst of times.

Swaths of companies, including automakers, airlines, and retailers, pared back previously issued financial outlooks or yanked them altogether, citing tariff-driven uncertainty. Meanwhile, household brands, including Coca-Cola, reaffirmed their full-year forecast, waxing optimistic even as the Trump administration’s trade policies took some of the fizz out of its pop sales.

Hecho en México

“Coca-Cola is for everyone and we strive to contribute to each of the communities we serve,” Chief Executive Officer James Quincey said during the company’s earnings call last week, highlighting the strength of its “all-weather strategy.”

The beverage giant’s earnings per share beat analysts’ expectations, but sales in Latin America were flat for the quarter, stemming from a decline in major markets such as Mexico. The pullback from Hispanic consumers was due, in part, to geopolitical tensions eroding sentiment. For example, there was a viral video that claimed to show the company calling Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on its undocumented workers, which Quincey dismissed as “completely false.” Coca-Cola plans to win customers back, focusing on affordability with refillables and leaning into the “Hecho en México” (Made in Mexico) campaign, emphasizing localness.

The company’s optimism was a bright spot in an otherwise dour week. The US economy contracted for the first time since early 2022, and consumer spending slowed, fueling fears of a rare economic condition called stagflation, in which growth stagnates and high inflation persists.

Defensive sectors have historically performed relatively well in that environment because they provide essentials. That would explain consumer staples giants’ resilience as others move into a protective crouch, or freeze in place:

• Altria, the maker of Marlboro cigarettes, reaffirmed its profit forecast for 2025, though it posted a less-than-stellar report for the first quarter. Cigarette sales declined amid competition from illicit e-cigarettes, but the company said it sees continued momentum behind its tobacco alternative products. Nicotine pouches, for example, are becoming increasingly popular with Gen Z. CFO Sal Mancuso reminded earnings Q&A participants that Altria is a “US company with a US-focused supply chain.” In other words, the tariff-related impact on costs will be limited.
• Sherwin-Williams beat earnings-per-share estimates, a win driven by higher prices and controlling costs. Revenue missed. The company also maintained its full-year guidance and is due to issue another update in July. CEO Heidi Petz emphasized the paintmaker’s domestic sourcing and manufacturing during its earnings call, and said: “We are determined to expand our competitive moat in the current environment.”

Yield appeal: Coca-Cola, Altria, and Sherwin-Williams pay dividends, which should make them more attractive to investors. Investor preference for how corporations use cash tends to be tied to stages in the economic cycle, per a Goldman Sachs briefing. With the firm’s economists forecasting lower growth, US equity strategist Ryan Hammond expects investors to favor companies that return cash to shareholders or invest in future growth.

The American economy keeps making like Bruce Willis in Die Hard. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 jobs in April, besting forecasts and offering the latest hard data point showing economic resiliency in the face of tariff-induced turmoil.

And yet the data that measures economic sentiment continues to tell a different story: pending gloom. As The Smiths song goes: “I was looking for a job, and then I found a job and heaven knows I’m miserable now.”

The Hard and the Soft Truth

In the wake of President Trump’s tariff announcements last month, much of the economic discussion has hinged on so-called hard and soft data. Hard data, simply put, are the measurements collected from economic activity like sales, job postings and manufacturing output. Soft data refers to something far less quantifiable but nevertheless important: temperature-taking via surveys of businesses and consumers.

A fair amount of US economic hard data — like consumer spending, a 3% rise in core GDP last quarter, and this latest jobs report — have suggested the economy is holding up despite broad uncertainty about global trade in the short to medium term. The strong labor market data also boosted the ever-patient Federal Reserve’s delaying interest rate cuts until policymakers have a clearer picture of what tariffs might do to the economy. Goldman Sachs and Barclays both said they expect the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate in July now, after previously forecasting a reduction in June. The soft data, meanwhile, is telling a different story:

• Consumer and business sentiment continues to slump: Last week delivered the lowest reading on the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index since 2011 while the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI hit a five-month low of 48.7, in the sub-50 territory that suggests the manufacturing sector contracted in April. Economists are worried the data could point to future layoffs, while companies from carmaker General Motors to confectionary giant Hersheys have told investors that tariffs will eat into their bottom lines.
• On the upside, one of the key exacerbators of the trade war anxiety driving these sentiments softened Friday. China’s Commerce Ministry said it is “evaluating” an offer from Washington to start negotiations, the same day the so-called de minimis exemption of duties on packages worth under $800 from Hong Kong or China ended, exposing a wide swath of goods to 145% tariffs.

Stock Rebound: If markets are your indicator, the S&P 500 was up for the ninth consecutive day on Friday, and the 10% gain over that period brought the index approximately level with where it was before a selloff inspired by Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. The 90-day pause on tariffs expires July 8, so those investors who jumped off the sidelines this week might still want to buy a grill early in case future Independence Days become more expensive.

The Grand Theft Auto video game franchise, known for its open world crime capers, detoured into spiritual theft on Friday, stealing the hopes of gamers jonesing to terrorize the denizens of an imagined city in its next installment before the end of the year.

Take-Two Interactive, the gaming giant that was set to release the series’ sixth installment in the second half of 2025, announced GTA VI will now be launched in 2026. It’s a major blow to the video game industry, which is still reeling from a downturn last year.

Hairpin Curveball

The gaming industry has slipped like a Mario Kart driver on a banana peel. There have been 2,100 layoffs so far in 2025 after more than 14,000 last year, according to one industry tracker. But last month, Newzoo analysts forecasted that the much-heralded one-two punch of GTA VI and Nintendo’s Switch 2 console, the latter set for a June release, would help lift global console software revenues by 10% in 2025 to $47.3 billion, a year after sales fell 4% due to fewer hit games and no major console releases. The GTA pause leaves a giant hole in those calculations.

GTA VI, which is being developed by Take-Two subsidiary Rockstar Games, is unlike other gaming franchises in that it’s as culturally ubiquitous, if not more so, than any film or music phenomenon. A trailer released in 2023 has been viewed on YouTube more than 250 million times while economic estimates and surveys suggest that, even if you won’t be lining up to buy it on day one, someone in your life will be:

• Analysts at DCI Intelligence forecast that GTA VI will make $3.2 billion in revenue in the 12 months after its release, double what its 2013 predecessor made in the same amount of time (GTA V has made more than $8 billion overall). By comparison, last year’s biggest film, Inside Out 2, grossed $1.7 billion and the year before, Barbie grossed $1.4 billion — and losing that potential economic activity this year will impact tech giants Sony and Microsoft, whose PS5 and Xbox Series X/S will play home to GTA VI’s debut.
• One truly wild data point: Raymond James analysts said in a note last week that they surveyed 500 American men ages 18 to 40 and over 75% of them said they plan on buying GTA VI.

Braking Hard: Investors, like gamers — or maybe investors who are gamers? — were not pleased with the news, as Take-Two shares tumbled 6.6% to $219.50 on Friday. But that might simply mean the opportunity for a steal befitting GTA VI: Raymond James remains bullish on the stock, since the delay suggests there’s $3.2 billion in revenue waiting in May 2026. With a $240 price target, it is one of many firms with a positive outlook on the stock, which maintains a consensus buy rating from Wall Street, with an average target of $243, according to analyst ratings aggregated by Benziga.