When the stroke of midnight and the Times Square ball drop ushered in 2025, investment bankers clinking their glasses anticipated a fireworks display of dealmaking that would pay for their Dom Pérignon and then some.

You know what happened next. The hope that a business-friendly new administration would unlock the tepid M&A market ran into a wall of tariff-induced anxiety. But then things changed. More than six months into a market rally that kicked off in May, bankers at Goldman Sachs in particular can anticipate their next New Year’s celebration will be even more festive: They’re poised to nab their biggest share of the M&A market in nearly a quarter of a century. CEO David Solomon may have to start DJ-ing again.

The Goldman Ticket

Analysts at the Boston Consulting Group wrote last month that M&A activity proved resilient, if steady and slow, in its recovery from a post-2021 chill. BCG said the aggregate global deal value rose by 10% year-over-year in the first three quarters, from $1.7 trillion in 2024 to $1.9 trillion in 2025. The lion’s share of that activity, $1.2 trillion, involved targets based in North America, which accounted for 62% of global M&A.

Megadeals worth more than $10 billion are also on the rise, with the 27 through September 30 besting the 21 in the same period last year. The record $55 billion buyout of gaming company Electronic Arts by a consortium including Silver Lake and the Saudi Public Investment Fund is the flashiest example. It’s also especially notable because Goldman Sachs, which was EA’s only advisor on the deal, notched a $110 million fee from its involvement. That’s helping position Goldman particularly advantageously:

• Citing LSEG data, the Financial Times reported Monday that Goldman has advised on 34% of global mergers by deal value this year, up from 28% in 2024 and the highest share since 2015. Moreover, the newspaper noted that the fee Goldman is set to earn from Cidara Therapeutics’ $9.2 billion acquisition by Merck, which was only announced Friday and wasn’t included in LSEG’s data, means it could win its largest cut of the deals market since 2001.
• Goldman’s market share of fees from completed deals is not nearly as high, although the FT said Dealogic shows its 10.7% is the best since 2022.

Top of the Lot: Goldman shares, up 35% this year, set a record high closing price of $838.97 last week. Last month, the firm reported its investment banking fees surged 42% year-over-year to $2.6 billion in the third quarter, above and beyond analysts’ expectations of 14%. Executives said Goldman had advised on $1 trillion in announced M&A deals in 2025, which they added was $220 billion more than anyone else.

We’re worlds — or at least 30 years — away from Jeff Bezos launching an online bookseller in the garage of his rented home. This time around, the tech titan is starting his new company with a cool $6.2 billion, which may be enough to buy three-door garages for everyone in America.

Bezos has created an artificial intelligence company called Project Prometheus that will focus on aiding engineering and manufacturing in various fields, including computers, aerospace and automobiles, The New York Times reported Monday. Bezos, the third-richest person in the world, will serve as co-chief executive and co-founder alongside physicist and chemist Vik Bajaj, according to the NYT, which cited three people familiar with Project Prometheus. Bajaj is best known for his work at Google’s research lab X.

Back as the Boss

Recently, Bezos has been making headlines for his social life more often than his work life. His $50 million wedding to Lauren Sánchez this past summer boasted a guest list that included Leonardo DiCaprio, Ivanka Trump and Oprah. Earlier this month, the “momager” of the Kardashian clan, Kris Jenner, held her 70th birthday party at Bezos and Sánchez’s Beverly Hills mansion.

But it seems that the Washington Post owner is ready to trade at least some of his yacht time for his first formal operational role since he called it quits as Amazon CEO in 2021. He joins an AI arms race:

• Tech behemoths like Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon have been pouring mountains of money into AI. UBS estimates that global AI spending will hit $375 billion this year and $500 billion in 2026.
• As of August, there were 498 AI unicorns (private companies worth $1 billion or more) with a combined $2.7 trillion valuation, according to CB Insights, per CNBC.

It’s not clear when Bezos’ new initiative was started, or even where it’s based. But the NYT’s sources say it has brought on nearly 100 employees, including researchers snagged from ChatGPT-creator OpenAI, as well as DeepMind and Meta.

Let’s Get Physical: It’s no secret that Bezos is interested in outer space. He founded the private aerospace company Blue Origin in 2000. But Project Prometheus isn’t his first foray into “physical AI,” which enables machines to do physical tasks. Bezos invested in robotics company Physical Intelligence last year.

Johnson & Johnson has had the year 2025 circled, highlighted, bolded and underlined on its calendar for a long time. Why? Because patent exclusivity for Stelara, its longtime top-selling drug that treats psoriasis and inflammatory bowel disease, expired this year, allowing so-called “biosimilars” to hit the market.

In turn, the company has embraced acquisitions to keep its pipeline flowing. On Monday, it announced an agreement to pay $3.1 billion for Halda Therapeutics, a company specializing in prostate cancer treatments.

Halda Phone

In its third-quarter earnings statement last month, J&J said that sales of Stelara had plummeted 41% year-over-year to $1.5 billion worldwide. But the company defied expectations, as overall sales continue to climb. “No other healthcare company has grown through the loss of exclusivity of a multibillion-dollar product in the first year,” CEO Joaquin Duato said during an earnings call this summer.

And now, like its big biotech peers, J&J is doubling down on M&A to shore up its pipeline:

• “[The Halda] acquisition further strengthens our deep oncology pipeline with an exciting lead asset in prostate cancer and a platform capable of treating multiple cancers and diseases beyond oncology,” Jennifer Taubert, worldwide chairman for J&J’s innovative medicine division, said in a statement Monday. Halda’s pipeline complements J&J’s existing oncology portfolio, which generated more than $6 billion in global sales in its most recent quarter.
• In addition to Halda, J&J acquired neuroscience drug developer Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion in January. It remains one of the blockbuster moves of the year, along with last week’s $9.2 billion acquisition of flu treatment company Cidara by Merck, and Pfizer’s $10 billion purchase of obesity drugmaker Metsera.

Chip Dip: The loss of Stelara wasn’t the only headwind slamming J&J this year. Like the rest of the industry, the company grappled with an onslaught of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. But even that gale-force headwind seems to be fading: Last month, the administration struck tariff-exemption deals with Pfizer and AstraZeneca. The news, along with this year’s dealmaking boom, has stoked significant investor interest in the biotech sector. State Street’s SPDR S&P Biotech ETF has climbed about 26% since the start of September, while the overall S&P 500 has risen just 4%. Our diagnosis? Bubble or not, there’s some comfort to be had outside the AI boom.