For prospective homeowners, things look darkest in the areas where the sun shines the most.

In the latest Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), published Thursday, one thing is increasingly clear: There are two Americas. One, in the Midwest and Northeast, where the housing market is bad for buyers but may be improving slightly. And another in the Sun Belt, where the housing market remains downright dismal.

Midwest Coast, Best Coast

Aided by falling mortgage rates and a (relative) glut of supply, home buyers are starting to see the market truly tip in their favor in the Midwest and Northeast. Existing home sales increased 2.1% year-over-year in the former, while jumping 4.3% in the latter, per the NAR. In the South, sales climbed just 2.8% from the same period in 2024, and in the West, they dropped 2.6%.

“The Sun Belt, which saw massive inflows and a subsequent price boom during 2020–2022 while gorging on cheap money, is slowly working through its indigestion,” John Walkup, co-founder of real estate data analytics company UrbanDig, told The Daily Upside.

Meanwhile, inventory is slowly crawling back toward historical norms. But millennials shouldn’t get too excited just yet:

• Total housing inventory stood at 1.52 million units in October, according to NAR, up nearly 11% year-over-year. That’s good for about 4.4 months of supply, an increase from 4.1 months in the same period a year ago.
• Still, that figure typically hovered around 5 to 6 months in prior years, Walkup told The Daily Upside. It might not ease quickly anytime soon: Home builder sentiment has remained firmly negative this month, according to a National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) report released earlier this week, as economic uncertainty dampens overall demand.

Tipping Point? “It’s important to keep expectations grounded in the broader context of today’s housing market. Even though the data shows a modest year-over-year increase, I would view it as a cautiously optimistic signal rather than a definitive turning point,” Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist at mortgage data analytics firm Cotality, told The Daily Upside.

For buyers, that broader context is more than a little daunting: Home prices have soared 55% since the start of the pandemic, per NAHB, while the median age of first-time homebuyers in the US is now 40, up from 31 a decade ago. According to a policy proposal earlier this week from the Center for American Progress, the US needs to close a housing gap of 2 million units to level the market. The cost of the think tank’s proposal? Just $95 billion — or only a smidge higher than a 4-bed, 2.5-bath two-story Spanish Revival in Pasadena.

Suburban Chicago is a long way from Britain, but they’re still calling it a bloody good deal.

Illinois-based healthcare giant Abbott Laboratories said Thursday that it agreed to buy cancer-screening specialist Exact Sciences and its breakthrough blood test for $21 billion.

Match Made in Lab Heaven

Founded in 1880s Chicago by a pharmacist with a talent for formulating medicines from plants and herbs, Abbott is now a multinational healthcare giant with sales of $42 billion last year. Nearly half of its business comes from medical devices, including pacemakers and implantable cardiac defibrillators, as well as increasingly popular blood sugar monitors for diabetes patients.

Abbott also has a smaller diagnostics business, which executives have openly enthused about expanding. They got a taste of the potential during the pandemic when the company’s popular COVID-19 home test boosted sales. In Exact Sciences, they found a dream acquisition target specializing in cancer screening and oncological tests. It’s one of the fastest-growing segments in the health sector: Abbott valued the US cancer screening and diagnostics market at $60 billion.

Earlier this month, Exact reported a record $851 million in third-quarter revenue, including $666 million from its screening business, which sells the leading colorectal cancer test, Cologuard. With its Cancerguard, Exact is also one of a handful of companies producing blood tests capable of screening for multiple early-stage cancers. “Our vision here is really to build the premier cancer diagnostic company in the world,” Abbott CEO Robert Ford said on an analyst call. The price of that vision is a steep one out of the gate:

• Exact Sciences shareholders get $105 a share, a roughly 50% premium from the November 18 closing price before word of the pending agreement began circulating. Exact rose 16.8% on Thursday to $100.67, while Abbott fell 1.7% to $123.97.
• It’s the healthcare sector’s biggest deal since Pfizer acquired Seagen for $43 billion in 2023. And it’s Abbott’s second-priciest acquisition ever; the firm paid $30 billion for medical device rival St. Jude Medical in 2017.

Wall Street Windfall: Healthcare has made investment bankers happy this year, driving an uptick in mergers and acquisitions that’s bolstering their fees. Among the largest deals before Abbott’s were buyout firms Blackstone and TPG teaming to acquire medical device maker Hologic for $18.3 billion, Johnson & Johnson agreeing to buy Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion, and Mallinckrodt and Endo International striking a $6.7 billion merger.

Thanks to a scarcity of government data on how much (or little) consumers are spending, Wall Street is analyzing this quarter’s retail earnings reports even more closely than usual. And those numbers have made one thing clear: Walmart is still the retail king.

The country’s largest retailer not only beat earnings and revenue estimates during its third quarter but also bumped its full-year sales and earnings outlook higher. That’s the second quarter in a row Walmart has increased its forecast for the year, despite the continued pressure tariffs and inflation have put on retailers and their customers. In fact, those skyrocketing prices that consumers have had to contend with for everything from groceries to gas appear to be what’s giving Walmart a boost.

Slashing Outlooks Left and Right

“The large percentage of US consumers remain thrifty and are seeking promotions,” said analyst Zachary Warring of independent research firm CFRA. “Low- and middle-income consumers remain pressured and prices are top of mind.”

Walmart, whose reputation is built on low prices, is perfectly positioned to benefit. There are currently around 7,400 active price rollbacks in US stores, and since the beginning of the year, 2,000 price rollbacks have resulted in permanently lower price tags, CEO Doug McMillon said on a call with analysts.

“Walmart is better insulated than just about anybody, given the value proposition that we have,” Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey added.

Not all big-box retailers are heading into the holiday season as confidently as Walmart:

• Bath & Body Works reported third-quarter earnings per share of 35 cents and revenue of $1.59 billion, below the 39 cents and $1.63 billion that analysts were expecting. The company also lowered its fourth-quarter and full-year guidance, “reflecting current business trends and continuation of recent macro consumer pressures.”
• Earlier this week, Home Depot fell short of Wall Street’s earnings expectations for the third quarter in a row and Target reported a drop in quarterly sales. Both companies cut their outlooks for the year. Lowe’s quarterly sales increased year over year, but it also slashed its full-year profit outlook due to “ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment.”

Santa’s Still Coming: Despite concerns ahead of the busiest season for retailers, Americans are ready to open their wallets. The National Retail Federation expects retail sales in November and December to increase 3.7% to 4.2% from last year and surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever.