Three months ago, software giant Palantir reported quarterly revenue of over a billion dollars for the first time. Sales rose 48% year over year, handily beating the Wall Street consensus of 38%. The extent to which Palantir blew past estimates was perhaps something only the controversial surveillance technology company could have seen coming.

As Palantir prepares to report its third-quarter results after the bell today, its share price has increased by 380% over the past 12 months. Retail investors are clamoring for a stock split that would lower the price and introduce more investment activity to support what some analysts say is a stretched valuation.

Government Relations

Analysts expect more sky-high growth from Denver-based Palantir today. The company has been one of the top beneficiaries of Trump administration policies, with US revenue climbing 68% year-over-year in the second quarter. Under CEO Alex Karp, a former Democratic Party donor, the firm has contributed money for the new ballroom President Trump is building at the White House and sponsored the president’s parade for the 250th anniversary of the US Army.

In August, Palantir signed a 10-year deal with the Army worth up to $10 billion, consolidating 75 existing contracts. In April, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) disclosures revealed that Palantir had won a $30 million contract to develop a surveillance platform to support the agency’s crackdown on undocumented migrants. Recent partnerships with Boeing and Nvidia added to its defense and tech bona fides, respectively. Still, some on Wall Street have warned that Palantir’s surge has distorted its valuation:

• Leading skeptic RBC Capital Markets said last week that, barring a remarkable beat-and-raise result in today’s report, Palantir’s valuation is likely “unsustainable.” Analysts maintained their pessimistic $45 price target, though shares closed at $200.47 on Friday. Ultimately, it’s hard not to do a double-take at Palantir’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of 217.39, almost 10 times that of the S&P 500, which was 23.45 at Friday’s close.
• Retail investors, RBC said, are yearning for a stock split, which they consider “the most relevant topic.” While splits don’t change a company’s valuation, they lower the price of individual shares, which can sometimes create excitement among new investors with a lower barrier to entry, increasing trading activity.

It Follows: Nvidia, which has also seen its valuation skyrocket, completed a 10-for-1 split in June 2024. Netflix, currently only one of 10 S&P 500 firms with a stock price over $1,000, announced last week a 10-for-1 split to be carried out later this month.

Is Waymo’s robotaxi business about to become a hill of beans in Beantown?

Boston city council members are considering an ordinance that would require a “human safety operator” to be present in autonomous vehicles (AVs) operated by Waymo and other ride-share services. The local law would make Boston “the first major city in the world to ban fully autonomous vehicles based entirely on vibes,” Waymo spokesperson Ethan Teicher posted on X ahead of a city council meeting last week, where members postponed a vote on the ordinance.

The proposal would also require a study of the impact AVs would have on rideshare drivers’ jobs and the local economy.

Banning AVs

Riders in Los Angeles, Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco and Atlanta can now hop into fully autonomous rides from Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet. The company started test-driving in Boston in May, but not without pushback. Labor unions have been protesting the rollout and rallied outside City Hall in support of the proposed ordinance. “Driverless cars and trucks pose a serious threat to public safety, our communities, and the livelihoods of the countless dedicated men and women across the commonwealth who work as professional drivers,” Tom Mari, President of Teamsters Local 25, said in a statement.

Analysts at research firm Morningstar said the ordinance may also impact Tesla, and that it could simply kick the can down the road:

• If Boston requires a human operator in its vehicles, Tesla may opt not to offer its robotaxi service there, says senior equity analyst Seth Goldstein. “Given the harsher winter weather, Boston may already be lower in the rollout list, but the proposed regulation could prohibit Tesla’s robotaxi from operating in the city.”
• Any city that puts up barriers to entry for AVs will simply be pushed along the rollout and testing timelines, with the end-game being that the regulation barring the entry will be lowered over time as adjacent cities allow for the AVs, equity analyst Malik Ahmed Khan adds. “Imagine a Bostonian not having access to Waymo in Boston but really enjoying the experience in NYC and then being more pro-AV in Boston.”

Waymo Weighs In: Waymo’s regional head of state and local policy for the US East, Matthew Walsh, said in a statement shared with The Daily Upside that the proposed ordinance is “an unprecedented ban on a technology that is bringing additional safety, accessibility, economic activity and sustainable transportation to the cities where we operate.”

“It could be a disaster.”

Those less-than-reassuring words from Vice President JD Vance last week characterized the potential effects of an ongoing government shutdown on the upcoming holiday travel season.

Equally alarmingly, commercial airlines agreed with his assessment, calling on Congress to pass a stop-gap “continuing resolution” to reopen the government and restore funding critical to the industry’s infrastructure. Unfortunately, some experts say the damage is done and that it may prove long-lasting.

Expect Delays

Last Tuesday, US air traffic control workers missed their first full paycheck (by Thanksgiving week, they may be missing their third, if the shutdown continues). And the added stress is only exacerbating existing shortfalls: There are currently 3,800 fewer fully certified controllers than the FAA’s target, Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, wrote in an op-ed for The Hill published last week. In total, some 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers are working without pay, sources told Reuters.

The headaches have, unsurprisingly, already caused delays and cancellations:

• On Sunday, October 19, there were more than 8,700 delays and 193 cancelled flights within, into or out of the US, according to data from FlightAware, while problems surged again midweek with another 7,300 flights experiencing delays on Thursday. Those were due in part to extreme weather in the northern and southeastern US.
• According to US Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, 44% of the delays on October 19 were caused by air traffic control absences, compared with about 5% throughout the year prior to the shutdown.

“We are expecting a record holiday travel season; however, if the shutdown continues much longer, Americans will have to pack their patience and be prepared for more delays,” industry group Airlines for America said in a statement last week.

Missed Connections: The impact will hardly be temporary. Airlines are already quietly cutting routes in the first quarter of 2026, Evan Oshan, an aviation attorney and principal at Oshan & Associates, P.C., told The Daily Upside, adding: “The real damage isn’t just immediate revenue loss; it’s the long-term capacity cuts that take six to eight months to restore normal schedules.” In other words, it may be wise to start planning your winter getaway as soon as possible.