Quantum computing is a venture into deep space. Compared to traditional computing, quantum is like exploring a new part of the universe, according to Mihir Bhaskar, who leads the foundry business for quantum chipmaker SkyWater. Quantum computers can solve equations in minutes that traditional computers couldn’t work out in eons — problems that would be too expensive or impractical to try solving with traditional computers.

But the promise of quantum has always seemed to be about a decade away, a deadline that’s been perpetually pushed back. In recent years, the timeline’s been snipped shorter. Google’s 2024 announcement pushed the field forward with a new quantum computing chip that showed a way to reduce errors while increasing qubits (typically, the opposite happens). Amazon, IBM and even the White House have said they expect the first fault-tolerant quantum computers to come online in 2028 or 2029. Quantum’s dark side, its potential to break modern encryption, is also driving attention to the sector as governments and companies look to lead the technology, not become its victim.

Commercial uses could come soon after, likely starting with fields full of quantum problems like materials science and chemistry. The computers could eventually lead to breakthroughs in drug discovery, financial modeling, supply-chain optimization, weather forecasting and artificial general intelligence.

If You Build It, They’ll Invest

“There is already significant investor interest in quantum computing companies large and small,” Scott Buchholz, quantum computing leader at Deloitte, told The Daily Upside, “The Big Tech companies, certainly those in the hardware space, are already making substantial R&D and venture investments in quantum computing, and I would anticipate that continues for the foreseeable future.”

The Commerce Department this spring funneled $2 billion into nine quantum companies including IBM and Rigetti in exchange for small stakes. Last year, enterprise clients for the first time spent more money on quantum collectively than governments and research labs, Boston Consulting Group found. Ernst & Young even bought its own quantum computer to test run financial analyses in Toronto.

Retail investors meanwhile have boosted quantum companies’ stock over the years and especially over this summer. IonQ is up more than 300% since around this time in 2024. Shares of several quantum companies cooled off in recent months, but Bank of America analysts think more upside is incoming — they upgraded IonQ late last month. Buchholz expects interest and demand could pick up if the industry makes some of the major announcements anticipated in the coming years.

Quant Stop, Won’t Stop

The influx of both capital and hype is helping speed up quantum’s timeline. “The scale, the demand and the urgency has increased,” Bhaskar said. “Companies have roadmaps that they need to deliver on aggressively.”

Companies that want to start using quantum computers can rent or own the complex rigs, which look like steampunk chandeliers covered in gold and wires (definitely no giant keyboard and screen). IonQ for instance makes quantum computing available on public clouds for researchers to tap but also sells dedicated computing capacity to companies that want direct access. Bhaskar, who previously worked at both IonQ and AWS, called large, rented facilities “the ultimate end state of a computing technology.” For some companies, owning dedicated computers could be worth the investment — Rigetti Computing CEO Subodh Kulkarni cited pharma giants and government agencies that not only have the cash but prioritize privacy and computing power.

On a technical level, the timeline for building quantum computers is being sped up as demand ramps up. “We’re able to run a more effective foundry if we have more customers,” Bhaskar said, “The foundry works better when you have
more wafers running through it.” Tools that are being used and keeping warm are less likely to drift over time.

“We’re going to see sort of a compounding snowball-like effect where we’re going to be able to move even faster,” Bhaskar said.

Not the Next AI

Quantum won’t replace AI because it’s not trying to. “A quantum computer will come into a data center as part of a hybrid ecosystem,” Kulkarni said. Traditional central processing units (CPUs) will be tasked with sequential problems like adding and subtracting; graphics processing units (GPUs) will handle parallel computing tasks like answering an AI query; quantum processing units will deal with simultaneous computing tasks like running complex molecular simulations for potential drugs. In the same way it’s impractical to task CPUs with a problem meant for QPUs, it’s also a waste of resources to ask a quantum computer to calculate the 20% tip at dinner.

While quantum computing is attracting chatter and cash, it’s unlikely to have its own “ChatGPT moment.” This technology lives behind the scenes. “An average customer of a data center won’t even know that a quantum computer got used,” Kulkarni said. Quantum computing could instead be an unseen hand that helps AI break through to the next level, called artificial general intelligence.

Because the technology is supplementary to current computing infrastructure, it’s also not looking at a future of massive build-out like AI is experiencing. Instead, quantum could help rein in AI. Quantum is much more efficient than AI in its power use, solving equations that could require a football field’s worth of servers otherwise. And the quantum supply chain is being built on top of preexisting infrastructure: SkyWater’s largest foundry for creating quantum chips is last-generation technology.

Quantum computers could face unique challenges as they scale, with the potential for unforeseen clashes with the CPUs and GPUs they’ll be operating alongside. But for now, existing data centers seem to be a suitable home for quantum machines.

Noninear Timeline

Advances in quantum won’t come at a steady pace. Instead, they’ll happen in spurts and possibly hit plateaus along the way.

“Development is never a linear process, particularly when you are dealing with complex technologies like quantum computing technologies,” Kulkarni said, “That’s what makes it so difficult to predict the timelines with any degree of accuracy.”

Quantum’s still an emerging technology that has yet to prove its mettle in practical applications. But for companies looking to lead the technology into its next phase, the unknown, the exploration into deep space as Bhaskar put it, is an opportunity.