Good morning and poof, $213 billion in market capitalization is wiped out.

Shares in Meta fell 11% on Thursday as investors fretted about the social media giant’s latest spending plans. Despite Meta’s third-quarter earnings beat and revenue climbing 26% year-over-year to $51.2 billion, the company’s decision to hike its 2025 capital expenditures guidance to $70 billion to $72 billion, up from previous guidance of $66 billion to $72 billion, rubbed Wall Street the wrong way.

Big Tech is engaged in an arms race to build out market-leading artificial intelligence tools. A day earlier, Alphabet hiked its capex forecast to $91 billion to $93 billion, and Microsoft said it expects its own capex increase. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company plans to “frontload” spending so that it’s “prepared for the most optimistic cases,” like an AI system that surpasses human capabilities arriving sooner rather than later. Meta’s investors, however, are making plans of their own, and apparently for something other than a best-case scenario.

Trial Truce: US, China Negotiate Yearlong Trade Détente

President Donald Trump greets Chinese President Xi Jinping before a bilateral meeting at the Gimhae International Airport terminal in South Korea on October 30, 2025. — Photo via Daniel Torok/WH / Polaris/Newscom

To hear the president tell it, 11 out of 10 doesn’t begin to describe what a win these trade talks have been. He put it at 12.

The proclamation came on Thursday morning, following his long-awaited summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, during which the two world leaders brokered a trade war truce that they said would last a year.

Soybean Diplomacy

The agreement, even with a defined expiration date, did turn down the heat somewhat. The US agreed to reduce broad tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points, bringing them to 47%, still a historically high rate, but a notable de-escalation. Both sides said they would walk back the port fees imposed on each other’s ships. The US also agreed to a one-year pause on export controls that had been imposed in September on thousands of subsidiaries of previously blacklisted Chinese companies. China, for its part, is back to buying US soybeans.

In other words, relative stability is here (for now). But when the two sides meet again after another spin around the old Gregorian, fundamental issues will still need to be resolved. China backed off its trade restrictions on rare earth minerals on Thursday, but it will likely still maintain the trump card a year from now. We say likely, because one year could be enough time for the rest of the world to find a way to make the rare materials a little, well, less rare. Unsurprisingly, moves are already being made to crack China’s near-monopoly on the critical supply chain:

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the Group of Seven nations are preparing to announce as soon as today a critical minerals alliance meant to curb China’s influence over the market. It comes after the US has already staked out minerals deals with Canada and Australia.
Still, some are seeing China as having gained the upper hand through negotiations so far: “China must feel more satisfied than the US about where it is compared to the beginning of 2025” after identifying a “potent leverage tool through rare earths export controls,” Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale wrote in a note to clients seen by Bloomberg on Thursday.

Market Watch: Markets hardly stirred on the trade war truce news, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 1%. “The much-anticipated US-China trade agreement showed both sides willing to step away from recent escalations, but not willing to stand down from a longer-term competition,” Paul Christopher at Wells Fargo Investment Institute told Bloomberg.

Written by Brian Boyle

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Consumer

Chipotle Struggles as Customers Skip the Guac

Chipotle shares dipped more than 15% yesterday after the burrito restaurant wrapped up its latest quarter with flat same-store sales and falling traffic. The fast-casual chain also slashed its annual sales guidance for the third quarter in a row.

TikTokers using “hacks” to get an extra scoop of beans aren’t to blame for Chipotle losing its line. Instead, CEO Scott Boatwright said the reason’s simple: People aren’t eating out as much, let alone splurging for extra guac.

Slop Bowl Struggles

Boatwright, who’s been Chipotle’s CEO for about a year, said unemployment, student loans and slow wage growth are biting into customers’ burrito-bowl budgets, especially the core demo of 25- to 35-year-olds. Inflation-addled consumers are also under the impression that Chipotle costs more than it does, execs said during Wednesday’s earnings call, assuming its average entrée price is about $15 instead of $10. At the same time, Chipotle is grappling with rising beef costs that have generated pressure to hike prices.

While Chipotle also called out improvements it could make in its digital ordering system and staff training, most of the chain’s problems aren’t Chipotle-specific and affect the wider fast-casual industry:

Shares of rival restaurants Sweetgreen and Cava also fell yesterday as fears for fast-casual’s future grew. Both chains missed earnings expectations in the second quarter. Sweetgreen’s same-store sales fell 8%, and it cut its outlook for the second straight quarter. Cava, meanwhile, is seeing its rise as the bowl-lunch go-to taper from double-digit growth last year to nearly none in Q2. The chains are slated to share third-quarter results next week.
In more evidence that people aren’t going out for meals, nearly seven in 10 consumers told KPMG they’re eating at home more often, and 85% said the reason was to save money. About 40% of consumers also said their incomes had fallen, doubling from the previous year. Campbell’s said in June that people were cooking at home at the highest rate since the pandemic.

Avocado Latte: While many of Chipotle’s problems are industry-wide, it also lost its star CEO, Brian Niccol, to Starbucks last year (fun fact: Niccol and Boatwright work out together). Starbucks, which reported earnings on Wednesday, saw same-store sales grow for the first time in almost two years under Niccol’s leadership. Still, analysts warned that recoveries aren’t a straight line. With the continued government shutdown weighing on the economy, it’s hard to say whether consumers can be won over if their budgets continue to tighten.

Written by Jamie Wilde

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Healthcare

Eli Lilly’s Sterling Results Highlight Rival Novo Nordisk’s Fading Fortunes

Eli Lilly dealt a George Foreman-worthy blow in its ongoing heavyweight title bout against Novo Nordisk for weight-loss drugmaker supremacy.

The Indianapolis-based pharmaceutical company posted what many analysts pointed to as the strongest earnings of the season on Wednesday. Record performance of its GLP-1 drugs sent shares in Eli Lilly soaring, leaving its weight loss rival’s prospects looking like wishful shrinking.

The Tale of the GLP-1 Tape

GLP-1 drugs are often described as “blockbusters” or “miracles.” On Thursday, the nouns were being used to describe Eli Lilly’s third-quarter results. Net income rose almost sixfold year-over-year to $5.6 billion from $970 million. Revenue climbed 54% to $17.6 billion, topping expectations. That’s before even getting to the latest triumphs of its two leading GLP-1 treatments.

Mounjaro, which is marketed to treat diabetes, made $6.5 billion in the quarter, up 109% year-over-year and miles beyond the $5.5 billion expected by Wall Street. Zepbound, marketed for weight loss, rose 185% to $3.6 billion, beating expectations. Lilly proclaimed its market share for the category of drugs that includes GLP-1s widened 0.9 percentage point to 57.9% in the quarter, with Novo’s a distant second at 41.7%. Ozempic-maker Novo, once dominant in the space, has been mired in strategic missteps and has struggled to contend with copycat drugmakers. Shares in Novo fell 2.6% Thursday amid Lilly’s triumph, and are down 41.6% this year. Lilly shares rose 3.8% and are up 9.4% in 2025, and executives set the stage for future winnings:

Lilly now says it expects adjusted earnings of $23 to $23.70 per share this year, up from $21.75 to $23. Analysts currently forecast an average $22.48, putting Lilly well ahead of fourth-quarter expectations.
There is, however, a potential headwind: President Donald Trump, who has pressured big pharma companies to cut drug prices, vowed this month to slash the cost of brand-name GLP-1 drugs like Mounjaro and Ozempic to $150 per month, down from over $1,000 (or $500 via Lilly and Novo’s direct-to-consumer sites).

Punching Back: In an effort to get its groove back, Novo Nordisk on Thursday made a $9 billion offer for New York-based obesity biotech Metsera. That upstaged a $7.3 billion bid from Pfizer, which Metsera agreed to last week. Metsera called Novo’s bid “superior” and gave Pfizer four business days to negotiate.

Written by Sean Craig

Extra Upside

Foiled Russian Oil: After the US imposed harsh sanctions on its business last week over the war in Ukraine, Russian oil giant Lukoil said it will sell its foreign assets to Swiss energy firm Gunvor.
Rejected: AI cloud computing company Coreweave’s $9 billion deal to acquire Core Scientific fell apart Thursday after shareholders in the software company rejected the deal, which proxy advisors said undervalued Core Scientific.
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