Apple May Still Be a Hitmaker After All

We just had a flashback to … well, every year between 2007 and 2020.

Why? Because Apple may just have a hit on its hands. And, no, we’re not talking about The Studio, the Seth Rogen-led Apple TV+ satire that just had a record breaking night at the Emmys. We’re talking hardware. Early preorder data shows strong demand for the Cupertino company’s iPhone 17 and its ultra-thin Air model, despite both debuting last week to what felt like modest aplomb. 

Golden Opportunity

Between tariff troubles and the apparent clutches of the so-called innovator’s dilemma, Apple’s year of woe needs little recap. Its share price is down just under 3% year-to-date, and two notable analyst downgrades last week looked like a pair of bitter cherries atop a slowly melting $3 trillion sundae.

Now here comes the rebound. An analyst note from JPMorgan published Sunday noted that demand for the new iPhone variants is running ahead of last year’s new models. That concurs with Bank of America analysts who found that the iPhone 17’s ship dates — often a proxy for demand — are the highest for any model since the iPhone 11. The early indicators have been enough to trigger a notable phenomenon for Apple’s share price:

• Apple stock climbed more than 1% Monday, officially putting it into “Golden Cross” territory, according to a Barron’s analysis. That’s when an asset or an index’s 50-day moving average climbs ahead of its 200-day moving average, typically indicating a bull run to come.
• Apple is proof of the golden cross phenomenon. Through its company history, Apple stock has averaged a 9% gain over six months following a golden cross moment, and a more than 18% gain over an entire year, according to Dow Jones market data seen by Barron’s.

Fourth Year’s the Charm: So what’s behind the resurgent iPhone demand? A full one-fifth of the world’s 1.5 billion iPhone users haven’t upgraded their devices in at least four years, according to estimates from WedBush Securities analyst Dan Ives — making 2025 ripe for a massive upgrade cycle. No wonder we’ve started to notice our phones slowing down.