Pedal off the Metal: Detroit’s Big 3 Brace for Slowing Sales in ’26

If life is a highway, the Big 3 US automakers are taking their feet off the gas to get ready for hazardous conditions ahead.

Not only is economic uncertainty lingering, unemployment is increasing and tax credits for electric vehicles have expired, prompting Cox Automotive’s Economic and Industry Insights team to predict the new-vehicle sales pace in 2026 will decrease by 2.4% to 15.8 million. David Whiston, a senior US autos analyst at Morningstar, says he doesn’t see much potential for robust US auto sales growth in the new year because “affordability is a challenge for many middle- and lower-class consumers and because the industry is making good profits at lower volumes thanks to good demand for high-end trim packages.” 

From Green to Gasoline

Eyes will be on the Big Three automakers — General Motors, Stellantis (formerly Fiat Chrysler), and Ford Motor Company — which are still dealing with import tariffs that Ford CEO Jim Farley has said caused “a lot of cost and a lot of chaos.” 

Whiston says that pricing can come down without ravaging General Motors and Ford’s profitability as most automakers, especially GM, aren’t using a high level of incentives as a percent of average transaction price. In other words, they can increase discounting without overly hurting profits should volumes start to slide more than they would like next year. After Stellantis’ last earnings report, Morningstar equity analyst Rella Suskin wrote in a note that volume performance for the next two earnings reports will be “critical in assessing whether the new management’s product-driven strategy is the key to Stellantis’ market share recovery.” 

Ford recently announced it expects to take about $19.5 billion in charges, primarily related to its EV business. As the Trump administration rolls back Biden-era regulations that supported EV development, Ford isn’t the only member of the Big Three pulling back from non-combustion-powered autos: 

• General Motors took a $1.6 billion writedown related to its EV assets in October. 
• In September, Stellantis threw its goal of producing only EVs by 2030 out the window. 

Used Cars: As for second-hand autos, Cox Automotive expects sales to come down 1% year-over-year. “Used retail inventory will remain relatively tight in 2026, but demand should be steady due to affordability concerns pushing consumers toward lower-priced vehicles,” the firm’s Insights Team wrote in a recent report.