IEA Forecasts Fossil Fuel Surpluses by 2030
The International Energy Agency predicts demand for fossil fuels will ebb pretty quickly as we move into the second half of the decade.

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Our oil well overfloweth.
On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency published its World Energy Outlook report for 2024, predicting that demand for fossil fuels will start to ebb pretty quickly as we move into the second half of the decade — and we might even end up with surplus sloshing around. This comes the same week that OPEC trimmed its demand forecasts for this year and next: It had previously been starkly at odds with the IEA.
Well, Well, Well
The last few weeks have been a bit deflating for OPEC. First, it gave up on its quest to drive prices up to $100 a barrel, and now it’s conceded that demand won’t be quite what it thought — it took a strong position this summer that peak fossil fuels were not even “on the horizon.” Now, the horizon feels like it’s coming to meet OPEC.
The IEA’s 2024 report repeated its previous prediction that fossil fuel demand will peak by the end of the decade. It was keen to underscore that “energy security” will be the watchword going forward. It’s an issue that was thrown into sharp relief after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and is once again bubbling to the top of policymakers’ minds as conflicts mount in the Middle East. Apart from the shadow threat of “geopolitical hazards,” however, the IEA report was pretty upbeat:
- “In the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample — or even surplus — supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, would move us into a very different energy world from the one we have experienced in recent years during the global energy crisis,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
- “It implies downward pressure on prices, providing some relief for consumers that have been hit hard by price spikes,” Birol said, adding that any resultant “breathing room” could free up policymakers to invest in renewable energy.
It’s Getting Hot in Here: The IEA’s report said that although CO2 emissions are set to peak imminently, based on our current trajectory, the world will still heat up by 2.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. That’s a lot higher than the 1.5-degree goal set at the Paris Agreement in 2016.