Eli Lilly Upstages Novo Nordisk in Obesity Pill Face-Off

In their first head-to-head trial, Eli Lilly’s obesity-fighting and diabetes-treating pill proved more potent than the one made by archrival Novo Nordisk. 

But will it be enough to give Eli Lilly an insurmountable lead? 

Oral Exam

Both companies have been desperate to innovate beyond their current injectable GLP-1 weight-loss drugs for a while, and for good reason. A pill version of the drug is expected to be preferable to many patients, and could make up for the shortfalls that have long plagued supply chains for the current injectable versions. That should expand the entire market, which may grow to $150 billion annually during the next decade, with an oral option accounting for one-third of that, according to Guggenheim analyst Seamus Fernandez. 

Which is why Eli Lilly is thrilled it won the showdown:

• According to the trial results, Eli Lilly’s pill, orforglipron, proved more effective than Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide pill in lowering hemoglobin A1C, a measure of blood sugar levels, cutting it by 2.2% compared with 1.4%.
• Orforglipron did better as a weight-loss drug, too, helping patients lose an average of more than 9% of body weight, or nearly 20 pounds, compared with just over 5% from Novo’s drug.

“For the majority of patients, this could be the main medicine that they need to control their Type 2 diabetes as well as their obesity,” Eli Lilly Chief Scientific Officer Dan Skovronsky told CNBC on Wednesday.

Weight For It: But the spoils don’t all go to the victor. Not yet, at least. Eli Lilly expects to receive regulatory approval in 2026 and debut its treatment on the market by “this time next year,” CEO David Ricks told CNBC at the start of August. Novo, on the other hand, may receive regulatory approval by the end of 2025 — and some patients may end up with a prescription at a higher (and possibly more effective) dosage than was used in the head-to-head trial. In other words, we’ll have to weight and see which company wins out.