Eli Lilly’s Sterling Results Highlight Rival Novo Nordisk’s Fading Fortunes

Eli Lilly dealt a George Foreman-worthy blow in its ongoing heavyweight title bout against Novo Nordisk for weight-loss drugmaker supremacy.

The Indianapolis-based pharmaceutical company posted what many analysts pointed to as the strongest earnings of the season on Wednesday. Record performance of its GLP-1 drugs sent shares in Eli Lilly soaring, leaving its weight loss rival’s prospects looking like wishful shrinking.

The Tale of the GLP-1 Tape

GLP-1 drugs are often described as “blockbusters” or “miracles.” On Thursday, the nouns were being used to describe Eli Lilly’s third-quarter results. Net income rose almost sixfold year-over-year to $5.6 billion from $970 million. Revenue climbed 54% to $17.6 billion, topping expectations. That’s before even getting to the latest triumphs of its two leading GLP-1 treatments.

Mounjaro, which is marketed to treat diabetes, made $6.5 billion in the quarter, up 109% year-over-year and miles beyond the $5.5 billion expected by Wall Street. Zepbound, marketed for weight loss, rose 185% to $3.6 billion, beating expectations. Lilly proclaimed its market share for the category of drugs that includes GLP-1s widened 0.9 percentage point to 57.9% in the quarter, with Novo’s a distant second at 41.7%. Ozempic-maker Novo, once dominant in the space, has been mired in strategic missteps and has struggled to contend with copycat drugmakers. Shares in Novo fell 2.6% Thursday amid Lilly’s triumph, and are down 41.6% this year. Lilly shares rose 3.8% and are up 9.4% in 2025, and executives set the stage for future winnings:

• Lilly now says it expects adjusted earnings of $23 to $23.70 per share this year, up from $21.75 to $23. Analysts currently forecast an average $22.48, putting Lilly well ahead of fourth-quarter expectations.
• There is, however, a potential headwind: President Donald Trump, who has pressured big pharma companies to cut drug prices, vowed this month to slash the cost of brand-name GLP-1 drugs like Mounjaro and Ozempic to $150 per month, down from over $1,000 (or $500 via Lilly and Novo’s direct-to-consumer sites). 

Punching Back: In an effort to get its groove back, Novo Nordisk on Thursday made a $9 billion offer for New York-based obesity biotech Metsera. That upstaged a $7.3 billion bid from Pfizer, which Metsera agreed to last week. Metsera called Novo’s bid “superior” and gave Pfizer four business days to negotiate.