Gold Miner Newmont Mints Some of S&P 500’s Best Returns

Palantir may own the gold medal and Seagate Technology the silver as the S&P 500’s top two performers this year, but the bronze goes to a gold miner. No joke. 

Shares in Colorado-headquartered Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, have risen 96% in 2025, the third-best performance on the index after Seagate Technology (up 99%) and top climber Palantir (up 109%). The reason isn’t surprising: In a year of economic uncertainty, safe-haven gold is hovering near record prices. But, as Robert Frost said, “nothing gold can stay,” and forecasts suggest a moderation for gold in the years to come.

Lightning in a Bar

Spot gold rose 0.5% as of late Thursday, lifting the lustrous metal above $3,400 per ounce and nearing a three-week high. Not far off the $3,500 record set in April, gold is up roughly a third in 2025, more than enough to buoy Newmont’s balance sheet. In fact, the company reported $1.7 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter, with revenue rising 21% and profit jumping 99%, all despite Newmont’s gold production falling 8% year-over-year during the three-month period.

Earlier this week, Moody’s upgraded the company’s credit rating to A3 from Baa1, something CEO Tom Palmer hailed as a tribute to “the strength of Newmont’s balance sheet and our commitment to a disciplined, balanced approach to capital allocation.” But costs pose a potential short-term handcuff:

• Newmont’s operating costs have shot up since its $15 billion acquisition of Australia’s Newcrest in 2023, in which it took on a slate of new projects. Its All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC), a measure of mine production and maintenance costs, rose 25% from 2022 to last year, when it hit $1,516 per ounce. That has eroded the company’s ability to maximize earnings from record gold prices.
• Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that Newmont is considering cost-cutting measures that will likely require terminating thousands of its 22,000 employees. The outlet, citing sources it didn’t identify, said the company aims to cut its AISC by 20%, or $300 per ounce, which would make it competitive with lower-cost rivals.

A Glittering Second Half: Newmont said last year that it planned to shed non-core assets, reduce debt and slim its workforce, so the latest developments don’t come as a surprise. Meanwhile, analysts polled by FactSet still expect strong results for the remainder of 2025, with 60% earnings growth on $20.7 billion in sales, representing an 11% year-over-year increase. JPMorgan forecasts that gold will end 2025 at $3,675 per ounce, and some bulls, noting that the metal traditionally rises when interest rates fall, have suggested that $4,000 in 2025 is not out of the question.