By the standards of the dismal science, as John Galbraith once described the economics profession, its practitioners just did a happy dance.

On Monday, the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) released its latest quarterly survey, which showed that members have hiked up their growth estimates for the rest of 2025 and through 2026, just a day after The Wall Street Journal released the results of its own quarterly assessment, which showed a similar uptick. It’s not all sunshine and roses, however, as both surveys still flag rising inflation and a weakening labor market going forward.

What a Drag

Compared with the NABE’s last survey in June and the WSJ’s in July, the professional forecasters this time around appear to be seeing the US macroeconomic glass as half-full rather than half-empty, though they definitely still see it as only half-full. The 40 economists surveyed by the NABE, for instance, predict that inflation-adjusted GDP growth will hit 1.8% this year, versus a forecast of just 1.3% in June, while the 64 economists polled by the WSJ revised their inflation-adjusted GDP growth forecasts to 1.9% compared with a measly 1% prediction in July. Both groups predicted the economy will maintain a similar pace next year, citing intense business investment as the main driver of growth.

Still, the surge in investment isn’t broadening the job market, with both groups expecting the unemployment rate to climb to 4.5% over the next year, up from its 4.3% rate in August. Both surveys also showed that economists expect tariffs to continue fueling inflation, though perhaps not as much as initially expected. The forecasters can’t help but see the surge in import duties, and their often unpredictable implementation, as having a noticeable impact on the economy:

• In the NABE survey, 60% estimate that tariffs will knock a half-percentage point from GDP due to rising costs and falling trade levels, with no survey respondents projecting that tariffs will boost economic growth.
• The economists surveyed by the WSJ said that tariffs will add 0.5% to the inflation rate (a lower number than projected before) and that more certainty around tariffs is helping reduce their overall impact. That said, the WSJ noted that the survey was conducted earlier this month, before the White House’s latest threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Info Vacuum: The WSJ survey was conducted after the federal government shutdown began (the NABE survey was conducted in late September), meaning its economists lacked the most recent Labor Department employment data. However, the Labor Department has since said that it’s recalling furloughed workers in order to complete a key inflation report, which will be released on October 24 rather than the original date of October 15. It must be completed by November 1 for the Social Security Administration to calculate an annual cost-of-living adjustment. By week’s end, meanwhile, we’ll have forecasts from another group of economists navigating the data fog: World finance leaders are gathering in Washington, DC, this week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Looks like OpenAI’s not the only AI company flinging billions around like they’re shrimp at Benihana’s.

Chip-maker Broadcom’s stock spiked in September when it announced a $10 billion deal with a new customer that analysts speculated was OpenAI. But yesterday, Broadcom’s president revealed its new high-roller is not the ChatGPT-parent without specifying exactly who is scooping up $10 billion worth of its semiconductors. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Broadcom have announced a partnership, as of yesterday, to co-develop 10 gigawatts of custom AI chips over the next four years.

Broadcom is tight-lipped about its client list, but analysts believe its three biggest customers are Google, Meta and TikTok-parent Bytedance. The fourth member of the squad remains a mystery, highlighting just how many tech companies are reaching deep into their pockets to invest in AI.

Huge AI-ppetite

Big Tech has spent $155 billion building and running AI systems this year through August, according to The Guardian, and has made deals to spend hundreds of billions more. OpenAI alone has committed more than $1 trillion in years-long deals with companies including AMD, Nvidia and Oracle. To pay for the massive investment in building AI, Bain & Co. analysts estimated that the industry needs to generate $2 trillion in revenue by 2030. To put that into perspective, OpenAI is expected to generate $13 billion this year.

And AI spending won’t end with the upfront costs as tech companies scramble to secure the massive energy needed to run programs like Sora:

• AI uses as much as 20% of global data-center power, excluding bitcoin mining, the research journal Joule found, and that demand will probably double by the end of this year.
• CEO Sam Altman said he wants to ramp up to 250 gigawatts of computing power by 2033, according to The Wall Street Journal, which would cost $10 trillion today.

Possible Obstacle: AI stocks including Broadcom’s have surged this year on AI hype. This week, AI investors will be closely watching President Donald Trump’s planned meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. China expanded its restrictions on exports of rare-earth metals last week, prompting concern that chip production by companies like Taiwan-based TSMC could be affected. While Taiwanese officials said on Sunday that the specific rare earths targeted won’t directly impact the country’s semiconductor industry, critics say the materials are still crucial supplementary components of the chip-making process.

America’s largest bank wants to shore up America’s defenses.

JPMorgan Chase said Monday that it will invest $10 billion of its own money in companies it deems critical to US national security. That sound you hear is a thousand startups updating their pitch deck with potential defense applications.

In Defense of Bankers

“It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing, all of which are essential for our national security,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement announcing its plans.

Dimon said the lender, which has more than $4 trillion in assets under management, will focus its investments on supply chain independence, energy independence, defense and aerospace technologies, and finally “frontier” technologies like quantum computing and artificial intelligence (because if any area of the economy is hurting for boatloads of cash right now, it’s artificial intelligence). JPMorgan is “doing it independently” when it comes to its $10 billion spend, he said on a media call, in a nod to the recent strategic moves the Trump administration has taken to bolster companies it believes are vital to the national interest. In July, JPMorgan joined with Goldman Sachs to lend $1 billion to MP Materials, the largest rare earth producer in the US, at the same time that the Department of Defense became its largest shareholder. “I hope they’ll appreciate this,” Dimon said of the administration’s potential view of JPMorgan’s investment plan, which only starts with its own cash:

• The bank said it plans to facilitate and finance some $1.5 trillion for companies crucial to national security — 50% more than previously planned — in the next decade. That’s a lot of work ahead, raising investment pledges on the cocktail circuit.
• The market signaled confidence in Dimon’s administration-friendly plans, as shares in JPMorgan rose 2.3% Monday. The bank is reporting its latest quarterly earnings this morning, along with Goldman, Wells Fargo and Citigroup; analysts expect profits rose 6% at the country’s six biggest banks in the three months through September.

A Promising Start: Renewed geopolitical tensions have catapulted shares in US rare earth miners: MP Materials rose 21.3% on Monday, USA Rare Earth climbed 18.6% and Ramaco Resources added 11%.