With Gemini 3, Google Gains Ground on OpenAI

In ancient Greece, the twin gods Castor and Pollux, known collectively as the Dioscuri, were the divine patrons of sailors and warriors.

Here we are a couple of thousand years later and their Latin name, the Gemini, graces the artificial intelligence chatbot that’s an earthly patron of tech giant Alphabet’s stock. On Tuesday, Alphabet subsidiary Google debuted the latest version of Gemini, which could use some of that ancient warrior spirit as it takes on OpenAI at a time when all anyone talks about is how big an AI bubble we’re staring into. 

Model Inc.

Executives are touting Gemini 3, which comes eight months after the chatbot’s 2.5 model, as a “massive jump” for AI. In an introductory blog post, Google said the model outperforms top rivals like OpenAI’s ChatGPT 5 in benchmarks that measure coding, academic and common-sense reasoning, visual understanding, mathematics and scientific knowledge.

Meanwhile, Google is using its massive scale as a strategic tool to put the new Gemini in the hands of as many users as possible. Gemini 3 was immediately made available across the company’s major products, including its world-leading search engine. Once seen as a laggard in the AI race by some observers, the Alphabet subsidiary has grown Gemini to 650 million monthly active users, adding 200 million in the third quarter alone. That’s fast approaching ChatGPT’s 800 million weekly users. Needham analysts wrote Tuesday that Google’s other business segments, which include Search, YouTube, Android and Cloud, leave Alphabet better positioned to monetize AI than rivals. Among those who seem to share that view is Warren Buffett. While Alphabet shares were flat on Tuesday, they kicked off the week with a 3.1% gain on Monday, thanks to Berkshire Hathaway disclosing a 17 million-share stake. Alphabet’s appeal as the AI trade of choice for the legendary bargain-hunter is pretty straightforward:

• Evercore ISI analysts noted Tuesday that, even while it’s up 50% this year, Alphabet is still trading at an appealing 26 times forward earnings. By contrast, the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector trades at roughly 30 times future earnings, positioning Alphabet as a relatively affordable outlier.
• Prediction market Polymarket is pricing in Gemini’s chance of being the “best” AI model on the market at the end of 2025 at 89%. Improvement is welcome: A European Broadcasting Union study released last month found AI chatbots including Gemini, ChatGPT, Microsoft’s Copilot and Perplexity AI misrepresented news content 45% of the time and offered significant inaccuracies, such as hallucinated information, 20% of the time. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said on Tuesday that people shouldn’t “blindly trust” AI.

Grain of Salt: Meanwhile, Pichai isn’t ignoring the emerging chorus of market observers warning of a potential AI bubble. He told the BBC on Tuesday that there are “elements of irrationality” in the volume of deals fueling the sector’s rally. OpenAI alone has struck $1 trillion in deals, prompting skepticism. Pichai added that “no company is going to be immune” to a potential bubble, “including us.”