Advisors Donated More to Trump, Republicans — With a Major Caveat

Wall Street has historically welcomed conservative administrations because they tend to take a more laissez faire approach to corporate America and regulation. This year, political donations from advisors — a combined $1.93 million — are leaning more toward former president Donald Trump … with some significant qualifications, though.

Financial advisors have donated roughly $1.5 million to the Trump campaign and Republican groups, but two-thirds of that came from just one JPMorgan employee who donated just over $1 million, according to OpenSecrets.org data reviewed by AdvisorHub. Meanwhile, advisors have donated less than $400,000 to the Joe Biden-now-Kamala Harris campaign and Democratic groups — but similarly, most of that came from a single donor.

Removing those outlying donations, advisors backed Republican groups by a margin of $500,000 compared to just under $200,000 donated to Democratic associations, according to the data.

Red vs. Blue

In the red corner, veteran broker Walter Schlaepfer, who joined First Republic in 2020 after leaving Merrill Lynch, donated more than $1 million to Make America Great Again Inc., a super PAC that is being largely supported by billionaire Timothy Mellon this election cycle.

And in the blue corner, Mark Kuhn — who heads the RIA Kuhn Advisors in Durham, North Carolina — gave $225,000 to American Bridge 21st Century, a super PAC that recently released Pokemon-style trading cards featuring conservative candidates and their supporters.

• Including donations to campaigns, super PACs, and other organizations, advisors that donated gave $4,976 on average to Republicans and $1,728 to Democrats, according to AdvisorHub. 
• For just campaign contributions, advisors donated $170 to Biden or Harris on average, greater than the $138 they gave directly to Trump, according to the article.
• There is a $3,300 limit on direct federal campaign donations, but no maximum for contributions to super PACs, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Place Your Bets: Referencing historical data, MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert concluded that when the Dow has an up year during an election cycle, the incumbent party is more likely to win. He’s projecting that Harris has a 64% probability of taking the cake come November.

As of last week, the Dow was up around 10% year-to-date. Hulbert said performance is more important than GDP, consumer confidence index, and other indicators: “It’s the stock market, stupid,” he wrote.