These ETFs Would Bet on 2028 Presidential, Congressional Races

Would gambling by any other name be as risky?

At least three companies have their fingers crossed that the Securities and Exchange Commission won’t halt their plans for ETFs making all-or-nothing bets on federal election results. Over the past week, Roundhill Investments, GraniteShares and Bitwise have each filed nearly identical prospectuses for sets of six exchange-traded funds that would use event contracts to make wagers on the outcome of the 2028 US presidential election and majorities in the House and Senate. 

“This is a typical playbook: Issuer files for new, and potentially significant, ETF exposure. Peer issuers follow suit looking to capitalize as well, through their own distribution means,” said Todd Sohn, chief ETF strategist for Strategas. “The real question, assuming these are approved, is, ‘What kind of toothpaste are we letting out of the tube now?’”

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

In uncannily identical language, each of the proposed funds outlines an investment strategy that promises to tank spectacularly if the bets are wrong. “In the event that a member of the Democratic Party is not the winner of the 2028 presidential election, the fund will lose substantially all of its value. This makes an investment in the fund highly risky,” each of the prospectuses for the Democratic president ETFs reads. “An investment in the fund is not appropriate for investors who do not wish to invest in a highly risky investment product or who do not fully understand the fund’s investment strategy. Such investors are urged not to purchase fund shares.”

At least they’re upfront about it. But such products, if approved by the SEC (a topic worthy of having its own event contracts on Kalshi), would nudge the ETF category further toward speculation. “Allowing event contract ETFs would remove the distinction between markets and gambling, and we know the house always wins long-term,” said Bryan Armour, US director of ETF and passive strategies research at Morningstar. “I don’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater — many great investing options remain in the ETF market.”

The proposed lines of funds are not the first event-contract ETFs to seek SEC approval. In January, Roundhill separately filed for three products:

• One ETF would bet on the S&P 500 being at 10,000 or higher by 2030.
• Another would put it all on the Dow surpassing 75,000 as of 2030.
• And a third would wager on the Innovation-100 reaching 50,000 or above at the start of 2030.

A Roll of the Dice. As investor-protection group Better Markets has said, “‘prediction markets’ are just casinos.” Whether ETFs should be sold in a similar way will be up for debate. In the meantime, a look at some of the odds on Kalshi’s markets for the 2028 election provides some amusement: One can wager (for just a penny) on Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson being the Democratic nominee or (for the same price) Jamie Dimon being elected president.