Can US Tourism Bounce Back Amid Trade War?

Here’s one delay the tourism industry is actually happy to see.

Last week, shares of cruise companies and travel-booking firms surged after the White House announced it would delay its (possibly illegal) 50% tariffs on the European Union until at least July 9, allowing time for the two sides to reach a deal. Could it be the epicenter of a spring travel bug outbreak that the US tourism industry sorely needs?

Cruise Control

2025 is projected to be an unusually terrible year for the US travel industry — and only the US travel industry. At least, that’s according to data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) shared with Bloomberg in May, which showed that the US sector is expected to lose $12.5 billion in revenue this year as global travelers become increasingly frustrated with “America First” policies. In fact, the US is the only country out of 185 global economies that the WTTC projects will lose revenue this year. 

However, cooling trade tensions could help shift the tides, especially for the cruise industry (as any seasoned passenger knows, Europeans love their cruises):

• Shares of Carnival popped on the EU tariff delay news last Tuesday and climbed more than 7% by the end of the week; shares had been down more than 10% year-to-date ahead of the tariff delay. Royal Caribbean shares similarly climbed more than 10% last week, while shares of Norwegian Cruise Lines and Viking Cruises climbed roughly 5% and 3%, respectively.
• Bookings platforms similarly rode the market wave (the S&P 500 climbed more than 2% last week by market close on Friday). TripAdvisor, which has sunk so far this year, bounced back 5% last week, while Booking Holdings climbed more than 4% and Airbnb more than 3%.

Ski Bummed: Cruises aren’t the only alternative tourism business in need of a bump. Last week, ski king Vail Resorts announced the departure of CEO Kirsten Lynch following a winter season that proved particularly tough sledding. Her replacement? Former CEO Rob Katz, who revolutionized the company and the industry during his prior tenure by introducing the multi-resort “Epic Pass,” which now accounts for roughly three-quarters of all Vail Resort visitors. The company reported that sales of the pass were down this year, as part of a more than 3% overall decline in ski visits. Which means the slopes ahead are looking — in ski terms — rather gnarly.