NFL Kickoff Heats Up Prediction Market Rivalry

As the fall NFL season kicks off, competition is heating up off-field. 

Prediction markets are expected to rake in about as much green as traditional sportsbooks this year, Citizens analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a Wednesday note. More than $76 million in wagers were put up for last night’s game on Kalshi alone, and Bender predicts wagers will pile up to a total of about $35 billion this season. 

The field has changed since last year, as more companies open up prediction market platforms to compete with prediction powerhouses Kalshi and Polymarket. New entrants to the space saw the duo’s stumbles and are trying to differentiate themselves, sometimes with the help of a celeb or two. 

Sydney Sweeney Semantics

Novig got its name out as a new sports-only prediction market with a Sydney Sweeney ad in which the Euphoria star says, “No betting on wars, or deaths, and no politics.” The ad’s tagline, “Just sports,” emphasized by Sweeney only wearing sports gear, seems to be a not-so-subtle callout of rival platforms. In March, Kalshi and Polymarket users wagered millions on when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was later killed,  would be “out” as Supreme Leader of Iran. Kalshi ran an ad campaign later that month that said, “We don’t do death markets.” 

The Novig ad also made a point of using the word “betting,” which other companies have avoided, instead emphasizing that their products are classified as event-contracts trading. While the different terminology gave Kalshi and Polymarket an early edge, the gap’s closing:

• Because event contracts are federally regulated, they’re legal in all US states, even ones that don’t allow sports betting. That includes two of the largest US states by population, California and Texas. Kalshi, the leading US prediction-markets platform, was once able to cater to an unserved crowd. But this season, it’ll have competition. 
• Polymarket will have its first US season live since its early 2022 ban, and LeBron James is hyping the crowd for it. Traditional sportsbooks meanwhile, including FanDuel and DraftKings, now offer prediction markets, too.  

Big Game: New Jersey’s Attorney General has asked the Supreme Court to weigh in on sports-related event contracts, and a decision might eventually overhaul how the industry operates. But for this NFL season, the field could be more crowded than it ever has been, or will be. At the same time, prediction markets are rushing toward another fall event that’ll see users bet on winners and losers: the political preseason known as the midterms.