This Year, Hollywood is Thankful for Big Franchises

You can almost hear Dwayne Johnson telling Hollywood: “You’re welcome.”

With three major event films — Universal’s Wicked, Paramount’s Gladiator II, and Disney’s Moana 2 — set to dominate multiplex screens this Thanksgiving week, Tinseltown is licking its chops over hopes for the best box office haul during the holiday in years. Are you not entertained?

Defying Gravity

Last year’s historic dual Hollywood talent strikes ate into this year’s theatrical release schedule, especially through the first half of the year. And audiences noticed: Through November, the total domestic box office haul was down 11% compared with 2023. But this holiday season might make things right.

Wicked, the theatrical adaptation of the first half of the major broadway musical (Part II is due next year), and Gladiator II debuted this past weekend to strong results. The former is expected to pull $114 million domestically, according to Sunday estimates, and roughly $50 million outside the US. Gladiator II, meanwhile, is expected to have done around $221 million in business globally by the end of the weekend.

On Wednesday, Disney will add Moana 2 to the mix, setting the stage for a triple-feature blockbuster holiday weekend:

• Moana 2 is tracking to open to a gigantic $125 million to $150 million domestic box office haul over the five-day weekend. The first Moana did around $643 million at the global box office in 2016, and has since, according to Disney, become the most-streamed movie on any streaming platform in the US, with over 1 billion hours worth of watches.
• Analysts are expecting the trio to power the domestic box office to a record high for the holiday weekend — a big win for the industry. That means beating the $316 million record set in 2018, according to Comscore.

Double Dose: Unsurprisingly, the hits Hollywood has been able to score this year are familiar favorites. In fact, Total Film pointed out this weekend, for the first time in history this late in the calendar year, the top 10 performers at the domestic box office are all direct sequels (though Wicked will assuredly soar into the top 10 by year’s end, breaking the sequel spell). But it’s not just the big franchise plays that have seen success in the latter half of the year. Worldwide, smaller and indie films like Neon’s Anora ($21 million), Mubi’s The Substance ($54 million), Focus Feature’s papal thriller Conclave ($30 million) and A24’s We Live in Time ($30 million) have all done great business for non-franchise fare. As far as Hollywood’s concerned, that’s just gravy.