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The co-tenants of the world’s most famous arena could be breaking up. Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. filed a Form 10 with the SEC on Monday to potentially split the National Basketball Association’s New York Knicks and the National Hockey League’s New York Rangers into two separate, publicly traded companies.

Analysts have long argued in favor of the move, which could unlock value in both franchises, seen as undervalued by the stock market relative to private markets. As of Monday, MSG Sports shares traded at a market capitalization of $8.5 billion, significantly less than the $9.75 billion at which Forbes valued the Knicks last year. The Rangers, at $4 billion, were ranked as the second-most valuable NHL team, behind only the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now, the heavily favored Knicks can remind investors of their storied history by blowing the Eastern Conference finals.

Consumer

Retail Earnings Likely to Spotlight Inflation’s Bruising Grip on Low-Income Consumers

Someone call the chiropractor: There’s a K-shaped kink in the backbone of the economy, and retail therapy isn’t helping.

Expect symptoms of the dual-track economy to appear in a plethora of earnings calls from retail giants this week, including Home Depot today, Target tomorrow and Walmart on Thursday. Complicating matters further? The supply chain shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already showing up in consumer spending habits.

The New K-Mart

Signs of consumer distress are practically omnipresent these days. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey has recently plummeted to near all-time lows, even below the dizzying early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. And last week delivered a bleak warning to the retail giants’ strip mall neighbor, when McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski admitted that the consumer environment is “certainly not improving.” Kempczinski flagged fast-rising gas prices as the “core issue” facing lower-income consumers, who are disappearing from the chain’s customer base. Domino’s CEO Russell Weiner echoed the sentiment in the pizza company’s earnings report in late April, and Whirlpool CEO Marc Bitzer warned last week of “recession-level” industry decline for big-ticket items like dishwashers.

It’s why this week’s gamut of retail earnings may be just as significant a macroeconomic indicator as the next quarterly update from AI king Nvidia on Wednesday. And, for now, any sign of consumer resilience can just as easily be interpreted as the continued entrenchment of the K-shaped economy:

  • US retail sales in April, for instance, advanced for the third consecutive month, according to a Commerce Department report last week; however, the 0.5% gain was not adjusted for inflation (CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month in April) and may reflect larger tax refunds to higher-earning consumers.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York last week also said that US credit card debt in the first quarter had ticked down from a record high at the end of last year … but did cop to “weakness in lower-income households” appearing in delinquency rates.

Abel-Day Parade: This is not all bad for retail players. JPMorgan analysts raised their price outlook for Target in a research note last week, calling tax stimulus an effective buoy for any consumer slowdown. Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe, meanwhile, upped his price target for Walmart, which continues to benefit from upper-K shoppers downshifting to the more budget-friendly store. In another seal of approval for big box retail, Greg Abel’s new-look Berkshire Hathaway revealed in filings on Monday that it bought 3 million shares of Macy’s, worth about $60 million, though the move may have been a bullish play on the retailer’s considerable real estate holdings.

Photo via Oracle NetSuite

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Energy

NextEra Energy Predicts Dominion Takeover Will Reduce Customers’ Power Bills

Photo of sheep grazing under Dominion Energy solar panels.
Photo via Kendall Warner/TNS/Newscom

NextEra Energy is big already. Will getting even bigger be better? Its investors and customers alike will find out if the company pulls off the merger with Dominion Energy announced Monday.

In addition to landing the combined business the title of world’s largest regulated electric utility, the deal will make it the world’s leader in global renewable energy and battery storage, the US leader in natural gas generation, and put it in second place in US nuclear power generation. The merger, executives said, will unlock value for shareholders by capitalizing on the energy-hungry AI boom and simultaneously ease electricity bills for consumers.

Tell Me It’s AI Without Telling Me It’s AI

The smaller company in the deal, Dominion, powers the world’s data center capital in northern Virginia. That’s where more than 12% of global operational data center capacity resides, according to research firm Synergy. Dominion’s shares climbed 9.4% Monday following the merger announcement, bringing its market cap to roughly $59 billion. Florida-headquartered NextEra, which would acquire Dominion in the $67 billion deal, is the most valuable utility on the S&P 500. NextEra shares slid 4.6% Monday, lowering its market cap to $186 billion.

While the words artificial intelligence do not appear in the press release about the merger, it doesn’t take a chatbot to tell you AI is written all over this. Big Tech could spend more than $700 billion on the AI race this year alone, according to estimates. US utilities are gearing up to spend $1.4 trillion over the next five years to meet the resulting “AInsatiable” demand for electricity. The downside for consumers is that the demands of data center hyperscalers are increasingly outpacing supply, leading to higher electricity bills (and record utility profits). NextEra says the merger can benefit everyone:

  • For Nextera shareholders, the company said it expects 9% or more in additional adjusted earnings per share growth through 2032. As it happens, the company is already working with one AI hyperscaler, Google, on accelerating nuclear deployment.
  • For consumers, NextEra CEO John Ketchum said that “scale matters more than ever— not for the sake of size, but because scale translates into capital and operating efficiencies.” He argued the combined entity’s efficiencies will translate to more affordable electricity “in the long run.”

Charging You More: The US Energy Information Administration said last week that it expects electricity demand to rise 1.3% this year and 3.1% in 2027, and predicted residential electricity prices will surge 5% this year.

Photo via Betterment

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Industrials

SpaceX Rocket Test Sets Stage for Record IPO

Photo of a SpaceX rocket launch.
Photo via Scott Schilke/Sipa USA/Newscom

On Monday, a California jury unanimously threw out Elon Musk’s high-profile lawsuit challenging OpenAI’s shift to a for-profit company. The issue: He filed his claims after the statute of limitations expired. Whoops.

Here’s betting the paperwork for the highly anticipated, soon-to-be-realized initial public offering of Musk’s SpaceX will be handled more smoothly. In fact, traders could be saying hello to the new publicly traded megacap stock in less than a month. That might prove thorny for Musk’s other company and its megacap competitors.

SPCX Marks the Spot

SpaceX confirmed it was headed for a 2026 IPO in December, confidentially filed its S-1 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in April, and reportedly plans to disclose its prospectus as early as this week. That would clear the way for a roadshow planned to kick off June 8, and for shares to start trading by June 12, which The Wall Street Journal reported is the company’s preferred date for metaphorical lift-off.

As for its literal lift-offs, Wednesday is a potentially auspicious day for the spacecraft company: SpaceX is scheduled to hold a crucial flight test of its latest Starship rocket prototype, which is being developed as part of NASA’s Artemis program. Not only is the outcome of the test a big deal, but also the activity expected when SpaceX begins trading could be big enough to cause gravitational shifts:

  • SpaceX will reportedly seek to raise up to $75 billion, more than three times the US IPO record of $22 billion set by China’s Alibaba in 2014. Bloomberg reported SpaceX told its current investors that it will carry out a 5-for-1 stock split this week, reducing the market value per share from roughly $527 to $105.
  • Noting that retail traders held 40% of Tesla’s pricey shares, BNP Paribas analysts warned in April that the “pro-Musk retail shareholder base” could soon be split, weighing on one or both stocks.

Hoping for a Repeat: Tesla debuted in 2010 with a market cap of roughly $1.7 billion and rose 40% on its first day. It is now worth roughly $1.5 trillion, making it the 10th-most valuable company in the world as of Monday.

Extra Upside

  • Save the Date: Kevin Warsh, who was confirmed by the Senate last week to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, will be sworn in on Friday and replace the outgoing Jerome Powell.
  • Difficult Position: Lululemon blasted its founder’s “outdated” business perspective on Monday, claiming in a shareholder letter that Chip Wilson’s proxy battle is hurting turnaround efforts.
  • At a Certain Level, Opportunities Don’t Get Posted — They Get Discussed. Are you in the room? The NYU Stern Executive MBA program connects you to 110,000+ Stern alumni and a cohort of senior operators, where access, not effort, tends to shape what comes next. Explore the program.**

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Disclaimer

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Sharp news & analysis on finance, economics, and investing.