Will Trump or Harris Win the White House? Ask the Dow
The election is quickly approaching, and some researchers are looking to the largest indexes for clues about the outcome.

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Want a tip on November’s election? Look no further than the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The presidential election is now less than a month away, and researchers are looking to historical market data for clues about the outcome. Past market performance has been incredibly successful in predicting the eventual winners over the past century, a new report from the Leuthold Group found. Gains in the S&P 500 in the three months running up to Election Day usually led to an incumbent party win. It was true in 20 of the last 24 elections, dating back to the East Coast/West Coast battle between California’s Herbert Hoover and New York’s Al Smith in 1928, the report cited.
It’s a stunning stat that may shed light on who’s sitting in the Oval Office come January. “Our money is on a free service with an excellent record over the last 100 years: The stock market!” Leuthold CIO Doug Ramsey Chief said in the report.
Exit Polls
While the S&P 500 has turned in prophetic results, Ramsey decided to push the historical data a step further. He found that gains in the Dow during an 11-week run-up to the election ended with incumbent party victories in 12 of 13 cases, while declines led the sitting party to losses in 10 out of 11 polls. It’s a success rate of 92%, Ramsey said.
“Just for fun, we queried our database to find the ‘optimal’ market-based election rule,” he said in the report. “This unapologetic curve-fitting exercise yielded a decision rule.”
September’s market gains were the fifth on the trot and 10th in the last 11 months, according to Leuthold, which would presumably bode well for Democrats. If the S&P 500 ends October strong, it would mark the first time since 1942 that the seasonally “weak” period from May through September finished in the green, according to the researcher. The Dow is up roughly 12% year-to-date.
Bet the Vote. Sure, better market performance is a plus for incumbents, but are investors willing to put their money where their ballot boxes are? Interactive Brokers launched event contracts on economic events in June, letting customers use exchange-listed contracts to take sides on yes-or-no questions regarding the US economy. Next up, politics.
The online brokerage, led by billionaire Thomas Peterffy, said last week that it will offer the same yes-or-no trades on a host of political outcomes, including the presidential race and control of the US Senate. Since that launch on Oct. 3, the company said it has facilitated over 1 million contracts.
Who needs a trip to the casino when you have an online exchange?