What Will M&A Look Like in 2026?

The advisory M&A market, replete with new records this year and poised for more in 2026, may nonetheless change shape significantly as smaller firms pull back amid growing competition between mid-sized sellers.

A record 94 deals in the third quarter alone, according to DeVoe’s most recent RIA Deal Book, has put transactions on pace to surpass 300 by Dec. 31, an all-time high. Next year, competition will ramp up further as private equity expands its footprint, the report predicts. To take full advantage, advisors should start making and refining growth and succession plans now.

“Some [clients ask], ‘How do I compete with the PE-backed aggregators?’” said Corey Kupfer, managing partner at M&A firm Kupfer Law. “My answer always to them is that you can’t. Unless you’re going to raise PE capital, you’re not going to compete with them at the game they’re playing. But there’s still room in the market.”

PE-ce of the Pie

Private equity has played an outsized role in RIA dealmaking lately, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts that began in 2024 and lowered the cost of capital. Still, non-PE deals consistently make up 30% to 50% of activity, according to Kupfer, and minority transactions in which firms sell a stake smaller than 50% have doubled year-over-year. This means there will be more opportunities for buyers and sellers in the middle of the market than ever before. “There’s a different seller who’s not necessarily interested in getting top dollar, and rollover equity, with a promise of multiple arbitrage,” Kupfer said. “There’s a much broader range of buyers these days up and down the spectrum, and so many different models.”

According to the DeVoe report:

• Sub-acquisitions, which happen when a purchased firm begins pursuing acquisitions of its own, reached a record high through the end of the third quarter, representing nearly a third of all transactions.
• Minority transactions are also up year to date, representing 14% of all deals.
• Medium-sized sellers, with $501 million to $1 billion in AUM, have completed nearly 30% more deals so far this year than in 2024.

Spread the Wealth. The financial advice industry is likely to go the way of the accounting industry as mid-sized companies play a growing role in the M&A market, seeking to acquire a broader range of services to remain competitive as they outgrow boutique clients, Kupfer said. “The market is becoming more sophisticated,” he said. “Firms that are in the middle, their clients … are being pitched by firms that have these comprehensive offerings, and then they have to make a decision on whether they want to build that capacity in house or roll in somewhere that has it already.”