PayPal Unlikely to Bite on ‘Low-Ball’ $53B Offer from Stripe, Advent

In the years after it was acquired by eBay in 2002, PayPal became famous for an exodus of founders and early employees who went on to launch many of the world’s most transformative companies. Including Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, David Sacks, Reid Hoffman and Chad Hurley, the group was eventually nicknamed the PayPal Mafia. 

More than two decades later, a now-struggling PayPal that has stood on its own since a 2015 spinoff must decide whether it has received an offer it can’t refuse. Reuters reported late Tuesday that rival Stripe and private equity firm Advent made a $53 billion takeover bid earlier this month, after initially reaching out in April. A flood of reports confirming the news on Wednesday sent PayPal shares up 17% to $55.50. A deal, however, is not in sight.

‘Premium,’ Says Who?

PayPal peaked in 2021 with a more than $280 billion market capitalization and shares in the company trading at more than $305. At the time, pandemic lockdowns were forcing people to shop online, drawing tens of millions of new users. But since then, PayPal shares have been on a downward slope worthy of Telluride: Even with Wednesday’s big gains, they have slumped 80% from their 2021 peak.

Diagnosing the problem is easy. First, PayPal’s branded checkout growth has slowed, registering 2% in the first quarter and 1% in the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, rivals like Apple Pay, Google Pay, Klarna and Shopify’s Shop Pay have steadily conquered market share in the online checkout business. PayPal, which is slated to report second-quarter earnings later this month, made $1.1 billion in profit in the first quarter, down 14% from a year earlier. Solving these problems is not so easy, but former HP chief executive Enrique Lores was appointed in March to lead a turnaround. First, he’s cutting costs by $1.5 billion within the next three years, including 4,700 layoffs affecting 20% of staff. Second, he’s  simplifying operations into three business units: Checkout Solutions & PayPal, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo and Payment Services & Crypto. With turnaround efforts underway, some analysts are skeptical that PayPal would sell itself at a nadir:

• PayPal traded at roughly $73 just one year ago, which could be used to argue Stripe and Advent’s current offer of $60.50 per share is a non-starter.
• “We do not think PayPal’s new CEO will likely embrace what could be viewed as a low-ball offer,” wrote William Blair analysts, adding they could see Stripe and Advent raising their offer to $70 per share.

What’s in it for Them? While some say PayPal should wait for a better deal, privately held Stripe, valued at $159 billion earlier this year, has every reason to go now. Despite its recent struggles, PayPal still has a massive base of 439 million accounts, and Stripe’s customers are mostly merchants, meaning the acquisition would open up a whole new world of payments.