New iPhone Air Is Ready for its Flex, but Apple Stock’s Already Swole

After a weekend and a Monday night of highly compensated quarterbacks airing it out, today is Tim Cook’s turn.

The Apple leader is expected to introduce the first significant iPhone design in years, the iPhone 17 Air. The slimmed-down version of its flagship smartphone is likely to be the highest-profile debut at the company’s annual September product launch presentation, billed this year as an “awe dropping” event.

Air It Out

It’s been a good run of late for the iPhone: Sales of Apple’s top moneymaker surged to $44.5 billion in the quarter ending in June, besting analysts’ $40 billion expectations and rising 14% year-over-year. That represented nearly half of the company’s $94 billion in revenue, not to mention that the iPhone drives sales of compatible devices like Apple Watches and AirPods.

The positive news followed research by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, which showed iPhone users have slowed upgrades of their phones since 2014, meaning there is no guarantee of a record stampede after new launches. In fact, it was fear prompted by President Donald Trump’s tariffs that led to a surge in upgrades earlier this year, a unique phenomenon that’s unlikely to recur. But, in keeping with another phenomenon of the age, Ozempic, the Air model will see the iPhone slim down. Whether that’s as well received as the GLP-1 craze is a different matter:

• The iPhone 17 Air is expected to have a thinner and lighter frame, taking after the Air models of Apple laptops and tablets, though it will keep the 6.6-inch screen. The size convenience, however, will necessitate sacrifice, namely a single rear camera (compared with as many as three lenses on other iPhone 17 models or rival smartphones) and a diminished battery life. 
• The main iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, meanwhile, will introduce redesigns for the first time since 2020 and come with upgrades to their processor, battery and camera lenses. That could leave the Air in a consumer limbo, depending on how Apple prices the new line, if the difference between a thinner phone and one with significantly better hardware is only a few hundred bucks.

Priced In: Short of Cook introducing a revolutionary new consumer-ready flying hoverboard today (upgrades to the Apple Watch, AirPods and other accessories are expected), Apple shares are viewed as having little room to grow. The company has added $430 billion in market value since late July, and is facing questions about its slow-going artificial intelligence strategy, which has raised concerns in some quarters and sparked cautious optimism in others.