Advisors and Clients Just Don’t See Eye-to-Eye on the Economy

Advisors and their clients don’t seem to be reading the same economic tea leaves.

While advisors are largely in agreement about inflation risks and bond returns, investors’ expectations are much more scattered, according to a new Vanguard report. Roughly half of individual investors see inflation reaching 4% or higher over the next year, and one in five are bracing for a jump above 6%. Three-quarters of advisors, meanwhile, see it hanging between 2% and 4%. The divergence is likely due to advisors being able to separate emotions from their analysis, as well as the fact that investors have more of a stake in the matter, said report co-author Andy Reed.

“[Advisors are] relying much more on the numbers, the rational side of the equation,” Reed said. “On the other hand, we know from decades of research that [for] investors, the heart guides the head.”

Sticker Shock Therapy

While most advisors expect 10-year US Treasury notes to carry a yield between 3.5% and 4.5%, nearly half of investors predict returns of less than 3.5%. Reed chalks this gap, and the inflation divide, up to individual biases and experiences impacting investor expectations, especially “sticker shock” from higher prices at the grocery store, for example. “If advisors are grounding their expectations, beliefs and outlooks in the fundamentals and this overall macro view, then investors may be grounding their expectations in lived experience.”

Advisors’ emotional detachment may be their superpower. Research suggests behavioral coaching alone can add between 100 and 200 basis points to returns. “A really good advisor can be that emotional circuit breaker when the market gets jittery, when the headlines are all doom and gloom,” Reed added. And that discipline shows up in advisors’ strategies. According to the report:

• Two-thirds of advisors plan to keep bond allocations steady, and another quarter will even add more bonds.
• Investors have kept their fixed income allocations steady over the past three years, with only 8% increasing exposure over that period.

No Crystal Balls. Both camps, however, know they can’t predict the future, nor should they try, Reed said. “To some degree, managing the portfolio is only half the story,” he added. “Where [advisors] really can shine and add value, especially on days like this, is managing clients’ emotions.”