After Supreme Court Ruling, Advisors Reassess Tariff Risk

Just like 41 of the 42 shots-on-goal Canada put up against Team USA in the Olympic hockey finals on Sunday, a wide swath of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs have been denied.

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled levies imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act illegal, but not before they generated nearly $200 billion in revenue, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. While the ruling hasn’t triggered widespread portfolio overhauls, it is shaping financial planning conversations, particularly around inflation and client budgeting. However the tariff saga plays out, the implications may be felt in financial plans for years to come. 

“We’ve all been facing higher inflation and higher prices since 2020,” said Chris Maxey, chief market strategist at Wealthspire Advisors. Tariffs are one more variable advisors must account for when projecting spending needs decades into the future, he told Advisor Upside. “Inflation is being felt pretty acutely by clients, and that impact just continues to build year after year.”

Market Moves

The SCOTUS ruling could also ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated. Doug Evan, chief investment officer at the Callan Family Office, said lower tariff risk may allow for a less aggressive stance this year. “You’re already seeing it in mortgage rates,” he said, noting 30-year rates have slipped back into the 5% range. “That will have a bigger impact on everyday consumer lives than the cost of toys or textiles.”

Market reactions have been relatively subdued:

• The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all fell less than 2% Monday. 
• Meanwhile, yields on 10- and 30-year US Treasurys drifted slightly lower.

Maxey argued the shifts likely have less to do with tariffs and more to do with a Citrini Research report on the future of artificial intelligence, questioning whether many people will be out of work in the next few years. “If you go back six months and look at all the betting market odds, it was largely assumed that the Supreme Court was going to overturn the tariffs,” he said. “I really don’t know that the market was caught off guard by the decision.”

That’s Politics. Most advisors subscribe to a “don’t invest in politics” approach. When tariffs were first imposed last April, portfolios largely held steady despite brief volatility. Major indexes recovered within about a month. Still, advisors aren’t ruling out further trade action. The administration has multiple legal pathways to pursue additional tariffs under national security or sector-protection arguments.

“This administration is not going to give up that easily,” Maxey said.