Big AI IPOs Get Headlines. The Real Story Takes Longer To Tell 

One down, two to go. 

SpaceX is now public, with a series of lock-ups scheduled to expire through mid-2027 offering the chance for significantly more float to hit the market, and OpenAI and Anthropic aren’t far behind. The trio of “cannonball IPOs” has the potential to cause not just big initial waves but also ongoing ripples for long-term investors, according to Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower Investments. The general public may pay more attention to short-term price movements in the early days and weeks after flashy IPOs, but financial advisors and their clients will have ongoing decisions to make in the years ahead as indexes, passive strategies and active investors adjust portfolios accordingly.

“Having these three big companies going public while sitting at the center of the AI economy is a big deal for investors,” Norton told ETF Upside. “In addition to their impact on mainstream indices, they’re going to give us much greater transparency into how AI is shaping up and what that uncertain future looks like as they begin to report earnings.”

Big New Kids on the Block 

SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually take meaningful weights in different mainstream indexes in the US. By the numbers, the AI IPO wave is eye-watering: 

• These companies alone could add as much as $4 trillion in extra market cap for US equities over the next six to 12 months, per an Empower Investments analysis, depending on how much float becomes available. 
• That’s roughly 5.4% of the aggregate market capitalization of the Bloomberg 500 Index. 

So far, Russell and Nasdaq have decided to admit SpaceX within weeks of its IPO, altering their rules to accommodate it, but the committee overseeing inclusion in the S&P 500 Index has not, likely delaying the stock’s entry for at least a year. These early inclusions and exclusions will likely have a modest effect on investors, Norton said, given SpaceX’s limited initial public float, which may very well be used as the blueprint for OpenAI and Anthropic. As lock-ups expire, however, float could meaningfully increase, which would mean these stocks take larger roles within important indexes. That will eventually open the door for additional volatility around quarterly rebalances, Norton said. 

AI Trade Transparency: It’s not just the equity index reordering that interests Norton as she evaluates the AI IPO bonanza. It’s also the transparency these IPOs bring to the AI trade. “One of the biggest questions investors have had focuses on the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on AI development, both by consumers and by businesses,” Norton said. “With model businesses [like OpenAI and Anthropic] going public, we’ll get a look at their earnings on a regular basis and gain a clearer view into the growing AI implementation, for better or for worse.”