What’s the Deal with Long-Term Treasurys?

The NFL’s regular season hasn’t kicked off just yet, but that isn’t stopping investors from going long.

Yields for 30-year long-dated US Treasurys reached historic highs this month amid a massive selloff, climbing to roughly 5.3%, the highest level since 2007. In July, long government funds raked in almost $6 billion, their largest monthly inflows since May 2025, according to Morningstar data. The fervor seems to stem from inflation risk and fears of mounting government debt, prompting the Treasury to announce last week that it will increase buybacks in an attempt to lower yields. There’s also the rise of AI and increased competition for funding from borrowers such as hyperscalers, said JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx.

“There’s concerns around the federal deficit … inflation risks, and the new wrinkle is people’s fears about increased competition for capital from large corporate debt issuers,” Bianco said. “[That could make] yields for both corporates and long Treasurys have to go higher.”

Long Bond Silver’s

The largest outflows last week out of all US-listed funds, about $4 billion, came from the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF). Long-dated Treasury performance is also down, while other fixed-income areas are up, making them — contrary to the standard logic — “not a riskless investment,” Bianco said. Still, people are buying the dip, with iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) growing by $5.3 billion last week. The mixed bag represents investors’ varied perspectives when it comes to the reliability of long-term bonds, Bianco said.

“There can be differences of opinion and flows in and out, especially in ETFs, which are very liquid funds,” she said. “You can take a position and you can change your mind … We’ve seen some [investors] move into the long end and have good reasons for that, versus others wanting to be more short to intermediate and also having good reasons for that.”

The dip has affected ETFs in the category, too:

• The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is down about 6% year-to-date.
• Vanguard’s Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares (VGLT) is down 4.9%.
• The State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL) is also down 5.2%.

Where’s the Horizon Line? The types of bonds to invest in, and whether to buy them at all, depend on the individual investor, their risk profile and time horizon, Bianco said. But other fixed-income products can be a good alternative to Treasurys, she added.

“It’s a pretty healthy environment to be in fixed income,” she said. “You don’t need to focus on the volatility of the long end of US Treasurys to have some areas of fixed-income investing where you can really enhance your returns.”