COVID Is Still Cash at Moderna, Where a Surprise Profit and New Vaccines Are Hyping Up the Stock

The years you spent in head-to-toe sweats at the start of this decade, and the COVID pandemic that inspired the fashion choice, are most likely in the back of your mind. But the virus is proving a surprisingly resilient booster for Moderna’s top and bottom line.

Shares in the Massachusetts-based pharmaceutical company rallied a hearty 5.3% on Friday after the vaccine maker revealed it swung to a surprise profit in the third quarter and sharply hiked its 2026 revenue forecast. COVID-19, it turns out, is still a bigger moneymaker than Wall Street expected, and it’s providing Moderna with momentum toward structural profitability that executives hope will include lucrative influenza and cancer treatments.

The Gift of the Jab

Moderna’s stock is up more than 760% in 2026. Yes, the mRNA-based vaccine and therapy developer Moderna, there is not an upstart South Korean memory chip manufacturer that happens to share the same name.

A white-hot rally like this seemed impossible entering the year. While fame and fortune came for Moderna after it developed one of the most effective COVID jabs during the pandemic, it spent the following years watching its revenue nose-dive from a $19.3 billion peak in 2022 to $2 billion last year. Now losing money, executives warned steady profitability wouldn’t return until 2028.

On Friday, the turnaround passed its latest checkup with flying colors. Moderna reported $1.3 billion in revenue in the third quarter, up 29% and well above Wall Street’s $890 million expectation. Along with that came a surprise $162 million profit, up from a $200 million loss in the same period a year ago. The driving force behind this was the “full-year impact” of Moderna’s next-generation mRNA COVID vaccine, approved last year, which showed the virus remains a much more lucrative cash cow than markets anticipated (investors aren’t doctors exhibit 13,535). In fact, almost all of the company’s revenue came from COVID jabs: $780 million in the US and $533 million in international markets. That sets up a very rosy outlook for revenue as Moderna prepares to tackle influenza and melanoma. Its mRNA-based flu shot, called mFLUSIVA, was approved by the FDA in August. In a late-stage trial of over 40,000 adults, it was ​26% more effective than a standard-dose flu vaccine. And intismeran, a cancer vaccine it is developing with Merck, cut the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% compared to Merck’s treatment alone.

• Executives noted that because vaccine contracts are typically signed early in the year, the impact of Moderna’s new mRNA COVID vaccine didn’t show up on the bottom line until this year despite being approved in May 2025. That’s likely to be the same with mFLUSIVA, which missed the window for this year’s flu season but will open up to a multibillion-dollar market opportunity next year.
• Moderna is now targeting 15% to 25% revenue growth this year, leaps and bounds beyond its previous 10% guidance.

Up on the Downside: Skepticism on the street is still strong. Last month, markets punished Moderna for an accidental leak of cancer trial data, even though the information that came out was positive. The average price target for Moderna’s stock, according to a survey of 23 analysts by Zacks Investment Research, is $135.50, which implies a roughly 44% downside in the next 12 months.