Hantavirus Trade Stalls as Officials Say Risk to Public Ranges from “Low” to “Very, Very Low”

There isn’t (yet) a vaccine for the Andes virus, the rare type of hantavirus that has stirred up waves of international concern following an outbreak last month on the cruise ship MV Hondius.

There is, however, a treatment for excess investor enthusiasm: a bucket of cold water. Moderna stock, which popped last week on news of positive tests among the ship’s passengers, went into reverse gear on Monday. Officials continue to emphasize it’s unlikely the virus spreads widely, with a pandemic risk even less likely, which deflated the trade.

Much Ado About No Meaningful Revenue Opportunity

The outbreak of hantavirus on MV Hondius, a Dutch cruise ship that sailed from Argentina and disembarked in Tenerife on May 10, is a serious concern for those who were on board and for health officials working to contain the outbreak. Nine cases, including three deaths, have been reported to the World Health Organization. Of 18 US citizen passengers who arrived back in the country on Monday, officials said one tested positive. All are being monitored and are in quarantine, as are other foreign nationals who returned to their home countries.

While hantaviruses are most frequently contracted via exposure to rodents, the Andes strain involved in the ship outbreak can be transmitted between people. Just don’t freak out, as it doesn’t spread efficiently like influenza or SARS-CoV-2. Still, it’s concerning enough to have rocketed shares of Moderna, which has conducted “early-stage and ongoing” research on hantaviruses with the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases and the Korea University College of Medicine. Its stock price closed at $54.35 on Friday, nearly 20% above its $45.37 close on May 1. However, shares fell 2.7% on Monday as leading health officials and experts continued to preach that the risk to the public ranges from “low” (WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus) to “very, very low” (US Health and Human Services department Admiral Brian Christine). Analysts had already cautioned traders last week against eagerness:

• Evercore ISI analysts said in a note they “see no meaningful revenue opportunity” for Moderna in hantaviruses, and dismissed “any potential outsized moves as sentiment-driven, not fundamental.”
• The amount of research dollars spent on hantaviruses also indicates its place in the global pecking order of concern. According to the International Pandemic Preparedness Secretariat, only $7.5 million was spent on hantavirus-related R&D in 2024, the most recent year with available data, the smallest amount of funding among the pathogens tracked by the group.

Delayed Reaction: Dr. Olivier le Polain, an epidemiologist at the WHO, explained Monday that it’s likely new Andes virus cases linked to the outbreak on the MV Hondius will be reported in the coming days, because hantaviruses have an unusually long incubation period that averages up to three weeks and can run as long as 45 days before symptoms emerge.