Scoring 2 Million Prescriptions, Novo’s GLP-1 Pill Crushes Expectations

The weight is finally over for Novo Nordisk.

Novo launched its GLP-1 pill, the oral version of Wegovy, in January, and the results are in: Doctors scribbled 1.3 million prescriptions in the first quarter, bringing in $354 million in sales for the Danish drugmaker. That’s double what analysts predicted. One month into the second quarter, Novo said prescriptions have surpassed 2 million. 

The pill’s blockbuster success led Novo to boost its annual forecast as it looks to the Wegovy pill to crush the competition. 

Targeting No. 1 for GLP-1s

Novo needed this boost. The Danish company, which was once Europe’s most valuable, sold the first FDA-approved GLP-1 injectable for weight loss, Wegovy. Meanwhile, off-label prescriptions of its diabetes-focused GLP-1 made Ozempic the GLP-1 market’s equivalent to ChapStick or Band-Aid. But then Eli Lilly launched Zepbound, its weight-loss drug, as sales of its diabetes-focused GLP-1, Mounjaro, also rose. As the two navigated supply-chain challenges and a pricing race to the bottom, Lilly surpassed Novo. It’s estimated that Lilly controls about 60% of the weight-loss market, while Novo controls just 40%. 

The Wegovy pill makes up a small portion of Novo’s total sales but could be a foothold for Novo to regain the pole position:

• Novo’s shares, which have fallen 70% from their 2024 peak, picked up yesterday after execs updated investors on the Wegovy pill’s strong start. Its January launch gave Novo a three-month head start on capturing customers before Lilly launched its competing Foundayo pill in April. While the Wegovy pill has name-brand cred to lean on, Foundayo has fewer dietary restrictions.
• Lilly launched its pill surrounded by success from its other weight-loss products. The drugmaker shared last week that sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound grew 125% and 80%, respectively, in the first quarter from the same time last year. Lilly also hiked its outlook for the year. 

The Trypanophobia Market: It’s a Wild-West-style land-grab for GLP-1 market share, but the horizon seems to keep expanding. JPMorgan estimates 25 million Americans will be on GLP-1s by 2030, quintupling from 2023. The wider incretin market, which includes GLP-1s, will hit $200 billion by that time, according to the bank. Novo’s new weight-loss pills seem to be reaching a new customer base rather than cannibalizing injectable sales: The pills appeal to people who are afraid of needles and people who are afraid of high prices. Tablets cost less than their injectable counterparts.