Can a Manufacturing Rebound Turn Fluor’s Fortunes Around?

Industrial and engineering giant Fluor reports quarterly earnings this morning, and if they’re anything like the last go-round, Wall Street might be due for more disappointment. 

But there’s reason to believe the sagging company may finally have some wind in its sails. Slowly but surely, the seemingly decade-long bipartisan push to reshore US manufacturing is starting to show up in the data.

Manufactured Consent

US manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace since May 2022 this July, according to the latest Institute for Supply Management data earlier this week. The gauge has now registered growth every month so far this year, after getting stuck in a prolonged contraction phase in all but two months going back to October 2022. New order growth increased as well. “My gut is, it’s not just a one- or two-month trend,” Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, told reporters on Monday. “Companies are seeing six or more months of these solid demand factors going in the right direction.”

The difference between this summer and earlier this year is that manufacturing headcount is finally increasing too; employment in the manufacturing sector jumped for the first time since September 2023. Behind the boom, among several factors, is the massive artificial intelligence data center buildout, which also gave Caterpillar a boost in its earnings call earlier this week. 

The only thing standing in the way of a continued manufacturing rebound? Surprise, surprise, it’s inflation:

• The ISM’s pricing index for inputs rang in at 71.1 (anything above 50 equates to price growth). That’s the lowest figure of the past five months, but still a marked step up from where it stood at the beginning of the year; in January, it registered at 59.
• Survey respondents reported price increases for all sorts of inputs, including memory components (though we could’ve told you that one). Meanwhile, manufacturers reported a scarce supply of aluminum and copper, as well as rare earth components.

“Geopolitical drama is creating mayhem, which means that the economy could grow faster if political headwinds go away. Conditions in the metals market remain unusually unsettled, with ongoing volatility and supply-chain distortions creating an environment that many view as even more challenging to navigate than the disruptions experienced during the pandemic,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, wrote in comments this week seen by The Daily Upside.

Fluor Square: Supply chain disruptions are expected to continue weighing on Fluor when it reports today. In its last quarter, the manufacturing revival had not yet caught up with the company; revenue of $3.6 billion was off 8% year-over-year, and its profit of 14 cents a share was more than 70% short of analysts’ expectations. That’s industrial strength ouch.